After beating the Detroit Tigers 10-4 on Thursday, the Texas Rangers have won seven of their last eight games to propel themselves to a tie atop the American League West with the Seattle Mariners with a 45-43 record.

The Rangers have flown under the radar all season. They did not make any splashy offseason free agency signings, instead executing some more savvy, under-the-radar trades like when they acquired MacKenzie Gore from the Washington Nationals for a handful of prospects and Brandon Nimmo from the New York Mets for Marcus Semien in a rare “baseball trade” featuring two established Major League players.

The only member of the Rangers who is having a bonafide All-Star-caliber season is closer Jacob Latz. The 30-year-old Latz burst onto the scene this year and established himself early as the Rangers’ best ninth inning option, recording 18 saves and a 1.71 ERA. Jacob deGrom, who just turned 30, is leading the AL with a 10.8 SO/9 and has shown flashes of his old self, but is no longer a true ace. Similarly, 36-year-old Nathan Eovaldi is still a productive player, but is not looking like the frontline starter he was for the first three years of his Rangers career.

Their most expensive and high-profile position player, Corey Seager, is on pace for career-lows all across the board. Seager was also just placed on the 10-day injured list because of lower back inflammation, his third trip to the IL this season. One of those was also because of lower back inflammation, the other was because of a concussion.

The Ranges are 21st in runs scored, 16th in total bases and 15th in OPS. On the pitching side, they are 10th in team ERA. Their run differential is almost exactly even -2. All pretty middle-of-the-road numbers.

Just looking around their division, they do not have the flashiness of the Mariners, who boast one of MLB’s deepest starting rotations and superstars in Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. The Houston Astros have Yordan Alvarez, who many believe to be the frontrunner for AL MVP (including our own Trevor May). The Athletics have a prolific offense and some of baseball’s most promising young stars. The Los Angeles Angels, while their record does not show it, are still a fun team to watch because of Mike Trout’s late-career resurgence

But still, the Rangers are in first place and are in line to make it back to the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 2023.

Just like now, that 2023 Rangers team was overlooked all year, and was picked by few to make noise in the postseason. As the 2nd AL Wild Card team, the Rangers swept their way past the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round and the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS before beating the Astros in a tense seven-game series in the ALCS and the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games in the World Series.

That team had a bit more firepower though. Seager finished second in AL MVP voting. Semien finished third. Adolis Garcia hit 39 home runs. Josh Jung finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Seager, Semien, Garcia, Jung, Eovaldi and Jonah Heim were all named All-Stars.

The Rangers were very active during the trade deadline in 2023, adding veterans Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Austin Hedges to try and push for the postseason. This year, they could do the same. Second base is a clear area of need, with six different players spending time at Semien’s former position. They could also look for an upgrade in the outfield and to add more pitching depth, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen.

One potential roadblock–the Rangers have a very weak farm system. Ranked 25th at the beginning of the season by MLB Pipeline, the Rangers have just two top-100 prospects, 20-year-old infield prospect Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 10) and 21-year-old RHP prospect Caden Scarborough (MLB No. 66).

With the AL as weak as it is, even if the Rangers do not end up winning their division, they should still be right in the thick of the Wild Card race. People counted them out in 2023. The team looks a bit different now, but the Rangers might just have it in them to pull off another surprise run in October.

We have a new podcast schedule! I will be releasing episodes most Fridays and Mondays. The next episode will be out on Monday, where I will be joined my executive producer David Korn to break down the weekend’s action and react to the All-Star rosters.

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

• The American League and National League All-Star rosters will be announced on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

• Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to start tonight against Michael King and the Padres. Dave Roberts is also planning on sticking with Dalton Rushing behind the plate, who got crossed up with Ohtani during his last start and had other miscommunications.

• The Yankees have lost seven straight. They’ll turn to Gerrit Cole tonight against the Twins to try and end their losing streak.

• The Cubs are crushing the ball and are hottest team in baseball. They’ve won nine of their last 10 and are looking to keep it up their rivals, the Cardinals, this weekend.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Mayday! the Podcast

My biggest surprises and disappointments from the first half

Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Harrison and JJ Bleday impressing

Top free agents, Padres offense and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander struggling

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

Brent Rooker out for the season

Breaking down Tatsuya Imai and Jake Bennett

How pitcher succeed without top velocity

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

The players were asked which organizations were the worst, and best, and they did not disappoint. Let’s jump right into it! (31 mins)

These are 10 trades that I know, for a fact, will happen no matter what. I guarantee it. So, let's go predict the future... (18 mins)

We're back at the half way point of the season, so here are my biggest surprises & disappointments of the season so far. Let's get into it... (21 mins)

The Red Sox sweep the Yankees at home. The Phillies are right behind the Braves. The Rays retake first place. And… the Mets fire their manager. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?! Lets get into it... (19 mins)

📝READ📝

My writer, Henry Neiman, shared some stats about how underwhelming this Mariners season has been.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Attack Angle

Attack angle measures the vertical direction that the sweet spot of the bat is traveling at the moment it hits the baseball.

Statcast’s attack angle metric is reported at the point of contact specifically (or the point where the bat and ball cross paths, in the case of a swing-and-miss). It measures the angle the bat is moving relative to the ground.

A higher attack angle, assuming the bat makes square contact with the baseball, is more likely to result in a fly ball. A lower or negative attack angle would be more likely to produce a ground ball.

The MLB average attack angle is about 10°. On a seasonal level, Major League hitters will range from average attack angles of around 0° to 20°.

• Hitters with high attack angles include Max Muncy (18° in 2024), Eugenio Suárez (18°), Cal Raleigh (17°) and Jose Altuve (16°).

• Hitters with low attack angles include Brice Turang (1° in 2024) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3°), Steven Kwan (4°) and Jarren Duran (4°).

The ideal attack angle range for a hitter is from 5° to 20°. That is the range at which swings produce the most value for the batter. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The good news is they finally broke their 13-game streak of scoring 3 or fewer runs, the longest such streak in the American League since 1972. The bad news? They lost anyway.

This is a Mariners team that in years past has had rough stretches followed by stretches of brilliance, but with enough consistency to keep fans happy and hopeful. This season is different, and let’s go through the numbers to understand what is so infuriating about this team right now.

42-43: Mariners record so far. The team has slipped back under .500 and lost the division lead.

2: Times that the Mariners have won back-to-back series this year. Nearly every series win is immediately followed by a series loss.

0: Times I have written back-to-back positive articles this season. This is a personal strain on me.

1-5: Mariners record in games that I personally attended. Help me out a little here, guys. One of those losses was a first date.

-0.5: Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor’s combined WAR this season. Two of the big reasons for last season’s success are complete non-factors.

12: “It’s over” declarations from my Mariners fans group chat.

25: Games that Brendan Donovan, the primary offseason pickup for the Mariners, has played in so far.

11-14: Record in one run games. It’s clear that the Mariners can win close games, but they don’t. This isn’t a bad enough stat to be dooming, it’s just bad enough to be annoying. It sums up a lot of the season: Good enough to not be out of it, but not good enough to inspire any confidence.

The Mariners are not a bad baseball team. If they were, they would have a worse record than one game under .500. But clearly they are not a good baseball team right now either. It feels like back in the mid-2010’s, when the team had stars and flashy moments and cool wins, and always came up just short. Except this time there aren’t very many flashy moments. I’m not complaining that the Mariners are bad, I’m complaining that they are no fun at all to watch. Fans are calling for Dan Wilson’s job, and maybe a little shakeup isn’t the worst idea. I won’t lie and say I’ve been very inspired by his managerial decisions.

Is a manager change going to fix everything? Of course not. It rarely does. If you aren’t convinced, there’s a great video that we just made on the subject. But right now there is no indication that things are turning around for the Mariners. They can’t go on like this.

Go M’s,

Henry “Wild Card hopeful” Neiman

We have a new podcast schedule! I will be releasing episodes every Friday and Monday. On Friday, I will be joined by my executive producer, David Korn, and talk about some of my favorite stories across baseball. On Monday, I will react to all of the weekend’s action. Today’s episode will be out this afternoon!

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

• The Miami Marlins are 1 1/2 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the third NL Wild Card spot and begin a three-game set against each other TONIGHT. Max Meyer, who is 8-0 with a 2.80 ERA, starts for the Marlins in the first game.

• Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff are scheduled to start for the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. Good luck to the Cubs hitters.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Mayday! the Podcast

New proposed changes to the MLB Draft

What this means for college baseball

Why this could be bad for the majority of players

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

What’s gone wrong with the Mets

Diamondbacks’ pitching issues

Breaking down LOB%

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

I joined the Bend Elks along with Will and Clint to find out how hard it really is to be a two way player. Spoiler, I found out. Big time. (14 mins)

Meet Henry. Henry is a writer. Henry hasn't thrown a baseball in over a decade. Henry wants to throw hard. I will do my best to help him out... but theres a catch. We only have a day to do it. Let's see how this goes... (17 mins)

Major League Baseball continued their proposal roll out last week by proposing a MASSIVE overhaul of the Amateur Draft. Included in the proposal was an International draft as well. After going through the proposal and doing some research... I have thoughts. Let’s jump into it and break them down, point by point… (24 mins)

Rafael Devers isn't happy (again), The Phillies vets unload, and Freddy Peralta is having his Mets season.... Let's jump in! (15 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about Kyle Schwarber’s Hall of Fame case after his huge weekend.

My writer, Henry Neiman, broke down the Mariners’ first half of the season.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Sweet Spot

Colloquially, a player who hits the ball solidly is said to have gotten the “sweet spot” of the bat on the ball. The sweet spot classification quantifies that as a batted-ball event with a launch angle ranging from 8 to 32 degrees.

A player’s sweet spot percentage -- or how often he produces a batted-ball event in the launch angle sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees -- is presented on Statcast leaderboards under LA SwSp%.

Sweet spot percentage can be used in concert with hard-hit rate -- the percentage of a player’s batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. For a batted-ball classification that takes into account both launch angle and exit velocity, check out barrels. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Kyle Schwarber made history last weekend. While his teammate Bryce Harper hit for the cycle during the Philadelphia Phillies’ 15-3 win over the New York Mets on Saturday, Schwarber hit three home runs. The duo became just the second pair of teammates in Major League history to hit at least three home runs and hit for the cycle on the same day since Lou Gehrig (four home runs) and Tony Lazzeri (cycle) achieved the rare feat for the New York Yankees on June 3, 1932.

Schwarber followed it up with an encore performance on Sunday, slugging his Major League-leading 29th home run.

On Monday’s edition of MLB Now on MLB Network, Steve Phillips, Ron Darling and Jon Heyman debated Schwarber’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

Baseball Reference has a great tool that tries to measure players’ Hall of Fame chances called the “Hall of Fame Monitor.” Created by revolutionary statistician Bill James, the HOF Monitor assigns points to various statistical achievements and career milestones. For example, a player gets 2.5 points for every season with a batting average over .300, 10 points for a 50 HR season, 40 points for 3,000 career hits, etc. A player with a score of 100 means they have a “good possibility” of making the Hall of Fame and 130 is a “virtual cinch.”

Schwarber is currently at a 77, sandwiched among eligible non-HOFers between Buster Posey, who has a 79, and J.D. Martinez, who has a 75. That puts him significantly below James’ 100 benchmark with a long way to go before looking like he has a chance to be enshrined.

But Schwarber is a unique case. He had an injury-plagued start to his career as a catcher and corner outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, helping them break 107-year World Series drought in 2016, but was nowhere near the kind of prolific power hitter he has turned into since joining the Philadelphia Phillies. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after the COVID-shortened 2020 season that saw Schwarber hit .188.

After that, he signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and was traded to the Boston Red Sox for the second half of the 2021 season. That offseason, he signed a four-year, $79 million contract with the Phillies which turned out to be one of the biggest bargains in baseball. This past offseason, Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies on a five-year, $150 million deal.

During his time with the Phillies, Schwarber has arguably been the most consistent home run hitter in the league. He had 46 homers in 2022, 47 in 2023, 38 in 2024, 56 in 2025 and is up to 29 at the midway point this season. He led the NL in 2022 and 2025 and is leading all of baseball so far this year. His 216 homers since 2022 are second-most in MLB only behind Aaron Judge.

Not only has Schwarber absolutely crushed the ball since joining the Phillies, but he has not missed any meaningful time with injuries. He has missed just 26 total games dating back to the start of the 2022 season.

Here are Schwarber’s career totals:

• 369 home runs

• 1,122 hits

• 836 RBI

• .232 AVG

• .347 OBP

• .506 SLG

• .853 OPS

Schwarber turned 33 in March. But based on his durability and how his power has seemed to increase as he has gotten older, that ever-important 500 home run milestone is well within reach. Based on historical precedent, the only thing that has ever kept someone with 500 home runs out of the Hall of Fame are serious steroid allegations, as is the case with Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both have over 500 home runs, and are expected to be first-ballot Hall of Fame selections once they are eligible.

Schwarber is currently on pace to hit 58 home runs this season. If that happens, he would end 2026 with 398 home runs. Schwarber has four more years left on his contract. That means he would need to average 25 ½ home runs each year until the end of his deal to hit 500 before he reaches free agency again.

For most players Schwarber’s age, that may be a tough task. But he has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down, and as a designated hitter, has seemed to be able to limit the wear-and-tear on his body that most players who field a position have at this point in their careers.

Schwarber’s status as a designated hitter, which has allowed him to hit at this level for such a sustained period of time, may end up being his biggest roadblock to being enshrined in Cooperstown. DHs have historically had a difficult time getting elected. The only members of the Hall of Fame who played a majority of their games at DH are Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines and David Ortiz. While Schwarber has still played the majority of his games in the outfield, by the time his career is over, he will almost certainly be known as a full-time DH.

One characteristic that many Hall of Fame voters look to when they fill out their ballots is if a player was one of the best at their position for a period of time. Unfortunately for Schwarber, he plays in the same era as Shohei Ohtani. Because of that, Ohtani has beat out Schwarber each of the last two seasons for the NL’s Silver Slugger at DH. Ohtani is not going away any time soon, and will likely continue to beat out Schwarber for All-Star starter nods and Silver Sluggers at DH in the NL.

Just a few years ago, it would have been blasphemous to call Schwarber a future Hall of Famer. That has changed. His consistency, durability and age-defying power have put him squarely in the conversation to getting a plaque on the wall in Cooperstown.

The Mariners are in first place in the AL West at 41-39, with lagging injuries, slow starts, and a lack of form from some of last season’s most consistent players. Let’s check in and see where things stand.

Each part of the Mariners’ roster has had a significant issue this season in some way or another and they have managed to survive it. The lineup had a lack of Cal Raleigh, who had a really slow start and then the first IL stint of his career. Additionally, the primary offseason addition of Brendan Donovan can’t stay on the field. A litany of other injuries to JP Crawford, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles have allowed for a merry-go-round of replacements in the form of Connor Joe, Weston Wilson, Patrick Wisdom, Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas, and Jhonny Perada. Some of these guys have had good moments, but you can’t say that a roster with this many names who weren’t on the Opening Day lineup is quite the vision that the team was hoping for.

The gold star of the callups is obviously Colt Emerson, who so far has looked comfortable settling into everyday third base. The power has translated to the big leagues with 6 home runs in under 100 ABs, and the defense looks lockdown. Who knows what will happen when Donovan returns in a few weeks.

LINEUP GRADE: B

The starting rotation has been great overall, with a few big wrinkles. A lot of scrutiny has been put onto the early struggles of Luis Castillo, and with the added confusion of the six-man piggyback system, it just doesn’t feel comfortable. It almost feels like an inevitability that one of the starters will get dealt, and there’s no real good option to lose any of them. But with Kade Anderson waiting in the wings a move has to be made. Most of the tension is caused by too much talent, making this really hard to grade. The pitching has been good, but something is going to change, and not knowing what will change hurts.

ROTATION GRADE: B+

The bullpen has been a huge headache. Injuries galore to Gabe Spier, Carlos Vargas, Cooper Criswell, and Matt Brash twice. Andres Munoz losing all sense of composure out of nowhere. Huge pressure put onto Jose Ferrer and Eduard Bazardo while everyone else crumbles around them. And still after all that, a bullpen ERA of 3.39 makes for one of the best in the league. Please make it make sense. Another arm will be needed to shore up the pen at the trade deadline(or maybe just move Luis Castillo there), because they can’t afford to lose anyone else.

BULLPEN GRADE: A- (somehow)

The Mariners are an amazingly frustrating team this season, with more ups and downs than my little cousin at the trampoline park. This team has no sense of consistency, with any player capable of going on a crazy run of completely falling off out of nowhere. It makes sense that the Mariners’ record is around .500, not because they are mediocre, but they are either so good or so bad that it cancels out. A team like this is very lucky to be leading the division, as the AL West descends further into oblivion. The Mariners cannot continue to rely on the collapse of all of their competition. They are in a decent place, but it’s time to get serious. Second half Julio is upon us now, and Cal Raleigh is healthy and here to prove something again. Munoz seems to be finding his form again (he looked great yesterday at least), and no outward complaining has come from the rotation since they changed the piggyback to include everyone. So maybe things are looking up, as long as nobody else gets hurt. Knock on wood.

Also, All-Star voting closes today, and we might get a few guys in there this year! That is, if anyone can get past the unyielding wall of Blue Jays fans voting for their guys with .500 OPS. Not that I’m mad or anything. But get out there and vote, it’s your civic duty!

Go M’s,

Henry “The Next Bryan Woo” Neiman

We have a new podcast schedule! I will be releasing episodes every Friday and Monday. On Friday, I will be joined by my executive producer, David Korn, and talk about some of my favorite stories across baseball. On Monday, I will react to all of the weekend’s action. Today’s episode is out now!

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

• The Seattle Mariners are debuting their new “piggybacking” rotation strategy! Tonight against the Boston Red Sox at 10:10 p.m. ET/7:10 p.m. PT, Bryce Miller is scheduled to start with Luis Castillo expected to come in out of the bullpen in a bulk role.

• 43-year-old Justin Verlander, who missed over two months with left hip inflammation, is scheduled to start on Sunday for the first time since his season debut. It is always must watch when Verlander is pitching for the Detroit Tigers.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Mayday! the Podcast

A conversation with MLB.com Statcast expert Mike Petriello

Breaking down the new miss distance and swing timing statistics

What we’ve learned about certain pitchers from these new stats

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

Daniel Espino’s debut

Driveline founder Kyle Boddy leaving his advisory role with the Red Sox

What the new statistic, Miss Distance, means for pitchers

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

Tyler Rogers has been one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball for years. But how? Let's find out... (16 mins)

We've had about a month since the Red Sox and Phillies canned their managers. One has seen a lot of improvement while the other... not so much. That got us thinking, does firing the manager in the middle of the season mostly work out, or not? Let’s discuss... (17 mins)

Manny be talking, Yamamoto get thwarted AGAIN, the A's are playing on the moon and The Miz breaks another record.... All of this and more on the Mayday Update! Let's jump in... (16 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, broke down the situation the Detroit Tigers are in regarding a potential Tarik Skubal trade.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Arm Angle

Arm angle is defined as a horizontal line extending from the location of the pitcher’s throwing shoulder and the location of ball at the time of the pitch. (via Baseball Savant)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The Detroit Tigers are in an impossible position.

Currently sitting 5 ½ games back of the third American League Wild Card position and 8 games back and in fourth place in their division with a 29-40 record, they are not looking like a serious postseason contender.

Two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is in the final year of his contract, and is expected to become the highest paid pitcher of all time this offseason when he becomes a free agent.

Skubal is represented by super-agent Scott Boras. That means he is unlikely to consider any sort of hometown discount. Based on Boras’ reputation, his primary objective will be to get Skubal as much money as possible.

If the Tigers are not 100% confident in their ability to out-bid teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and New York Mets for Skubal, then they absolutely have to consider trading him. This would be a different story if they were looking a bit more competitive and could justify keeping him for this season with the hopes of going on a postseason run, but that is not a realistic outcome for this current group based on the way they have played over their first 69 games.

This is the sad reality for Detroit fans. The Tigers invested heavily in their 2026 team, signing win-now veterans like Framber Valdez (three-year, $115 million), Gleyber Torres (one-year, $22.05 million qualifying offer), Kyle Finnegan (two-year, $19 million), Justin Verlander (one-year, $13 million) and Kenley Jansen (one-year, $11 million). They also signed rookie sensation Kevin McGonigle eight-year, $150 million extension in April, further signaling the Tigers’ financial commitment to this current group.

The goal was clearly to compete in what could be Skubal’s final year with the team and go as close to all-in as a smaller-market team like the Tigers can.

But, with the season almost at its midpoint, the Tigers have the decision about what to do with Skubal looming over them.

The Skubal situation is further complicated by his injury status. Skubal was the first pitcher to have a new type of surgery to address loose bodies in the elbow performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, coined the “Skubal Scope” by Boras, that is supposed to cut the recovery time from two to three months to just about one month.

Skubal had the procedure on May 6, and is scheduled to start for the Tigers on Saturday after throwing a minor league rehab assignment on Sunday.

Check out this video from our own Trevor May for more on the new NanoScope surgery:

If Skubal struggles or shows any signs of lingering discomfort, his trade value could tank. On the other hand, if Skubal pitches well in his return, that could further incentivize the Tigers to make a move knowing that Skubal is healthy.

There is always the chance that even if the Tigers trade Skubal this season that they could re-sign him, but that is an incredibly risky strategy. The Boston Red Sox notably tried to do this with Jon Lester in 2014, when they traded him to the Oakland Athletics during the season then courted him during the offseason. Lester ended up signing with the Chicago Cubs, helping them win the World Series in 2016.

The most prominent example of trading, then re-signing someone being a success is when the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs in 2016, then re-signing him to a five-year, $86 million deal, the largest for a reliever until Edwin Diaz beat it in 2022.

Despite what the Yankees were able to pull off with Chapman, it should be safe to assume that if the Tigers trade Skubal, their chances of signing him back are close to zero.

So what should the Tigers do?

For a half-season of Skubal, you could get an absolute haul of prospects who are on the brink of the Major Leagues.

The always aggressive San Diego Padres and their general manager A.J. Preller could offer a deal headlined by Ethan Salas, the No. 49 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline and the No. 5 catching prospect. The Toronto Blue Jays could dangle their top prospect and No. 29 overall prospect JoJo Parker. The Milwaukee Brewers could try and replicate the magic they found when they traded for CC Sabathia in 2008 and offer prospects like Luis Peña (No. 16), Jett Williams (No. 57) or Cooper Pratt (No. 63) while still retaining consensus top prospect Jesús Made.

Basically, any team in postseason contention should be willing to part with their top prospects/young players for a few months of Skubal.

But then again, the Tigers have a very bright future. Valdez is signed for two more seasons. McGonigle is looking like a future superstar. Dillon Dingler and Riley Greene are legitimate building blocks. There have been no reported indications that Skubal has been unhappy in Detroit, and that if the money is there, would not re-sign.

Signing Skubal to a long-term contract and continuing to build around the Tigers’ current young core should make them a contender for years to come.

Keeping Skubal, then having him sign elsewhere this offseason while the Tigers miss the postseason would be devastating for the franchise. But so would trading him and potentially nuking any chance of re-signing him.

Our latest BONUS video for paid subscribers is now live! I talk about pitching analytics with my former teammate and current Mets pitcher Robert Stock and break down the new pitching models we built.

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

NEW STUFF

📺 WATCH 📺

I’ve been hard at work building out my new studio/pitching facility and during that process, editor EJ pitched the idea that I should ask for some submissions from the community and see what a mechanics breakdown video would look like! Well, here you go… (26 mins)

We can now see where on the bat a ball is hit OR how and by how much it is missed by. This is a MASSIVE revelation and I can’t wait to dive in. I am joined by Mike Petriello, the head of Stats & Research at MLB, to discuss what it all means. Let's jump in... (33 mins)

STAT OF THE WEEK - Miss Distance

Miss distance expresses the distance (at moment of closest approach) between the top half of the bat and the ball, in inches. Only the half of the bat away from the hands, the barrel end, is considered, because the batter’s goal on a swing is not to make contact off the handle. (via Baseball Savant)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Our latest BONUS video for paid subscribers is now live! I talk about pitching analytics with my former teammate and current Mets pitcher Robert Stock and break down the new pitching models we built.

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Rob Manfred’s latest comments

Aaron Judge’s injury

George Kirby’s strikeout rate

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

The Major League Baseball Player's Association has OFFICIALLY made the first move in the the upcoming Collective Bargaining negotiation. The league then made its own proposal, and we are off to the races.

The MLBPA's proposal contained nine main points and there’s a lot to unpack out of the gate, so I'll be breaking it all down to you and giving my predictions for how each will be received. Here we go... (24 mins)

In this episode of Trevor Throws Cheese...

You probably hear Major League pitchers talk about how much harder MLB balls are to grip than College or High School balls. Grip, coincidentally, also helps with MOVEMENT. So, if the amateur balls are so much easier to grip... do they move more? Let’s find out... (19 mins)

After almost 51 scoreless innings in a row, Cristopher Sanchez' streak comes to an end. But how did he do it and can he keep this level of dominance up? Let's get into it... (17 mins)

With the trade deadline only 2 months away, it's time to start predicting what these teams might do to either get better or TEAR IT ALL DOWN! Let's break it down... (18 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, gave an early preview to a STACKED NL Cy Young race.

My writer, Henry Neiman, wrote about the logjam in the Mariners rotation.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Extension (EXT)

A pitcher must begin his throwing motion while standing on the pitching rubber -- which is 60 feet, 6 inches away from home plate. This does not mean pitches are actually thrown from 60 feet, 6 inches away from the plate.

The point at which a pitcher releases the ball is actually a few feet closer to home plate than the pitching rubber itself. Extension quantifies exactly how much closer a pitcher’s release point is to home plate. Taller pitchers with long wingspans tend to have the longest Extensions, because their frames allow them to hold on to the ball for a greater distance before releasing it.

Not surprisingly, a longer Extension can be a major advantage to pitchers, because they are essentially shortening the distance between themselves and opposing batters. A pitcher with a longer Extension can make a 93 mph fastball look like a 96 mph fastball. In this regard, Extension is a key component in the Statcast metric “Perceived Velocity.” (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Right now, it is a three-horse race between Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez, Milwaukee Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski and Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

All three of Sánchez, Misiorowski and Ohtani are having historic seasons. So, who has the edge right now and who will come out on top at the end of the year?

The case for Cristopher Sánchez:

7-2, 1.46 ERA, 86 ⅓ IP, 103 K, 1.089 WHIP

Sánchez has truly established himself as one of Major League Baseball’s premiere starting pitchers after his performance during the month of May and his 50 ⅔ scoreless inning streak. Sánchez’s scoreless streak dating back to April 30 finally came to an end on Wednesday in the seventh inning of the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the San Diego Padres when he allowed an RBI single to Jackson Merrill.

Sánchez’s 50 ⅔ scoreless innings streak is the longest stretch by a Phillie and by a left-hander and is the third-longest in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) and the fifth-longest since they moved the mound back to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893.

The Phillies have completely turned things around and righted the ship after a disastrous start that led to the firing of manager Rob Thomson, and Sánchez has been the biggest reason why. In addition to his famed streak, Sánchez leads all of baseball in ERA, innings, FIP, HR/9 bWAR for pitchers.

The case for Jacob Misiorowski:

6-2, 1.65 ERA, 71.0 IP, 108 K, 0.789 WHIP

Misiorowski may have had the most productive month of all time that did not result in a Pitcher of the Month award. In his six starts during May, “The Miz” had a 5-0 record with a 0.23 ERA, allowing just one run in 38⅓ innings while striking out 57 batters. The numbers are of course incredible, but Misiorowski’s historic velocity might be his most impressive feat.

Here are some stats courtesy of ESPN’s David Schoenfield highlighting the historic nature of how hard the 24-year-old Misiorowski threw in May:

• Misiorowski threw 241 fastballs in the month at 100 mph or faster.

• Batters swung at 125 of them, fouling off 48 and putting just 20 of them in play.

• Just five of those 20 went for hits, all of them singles.

• Misiorowski threw 71 pitches in the month that clocked 102 mph or faster, including starts with 22 each against the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals.

Misiorowski leads baseball in strikeouts, K/9, WHIP and is in the 100th percentile in Pitching Run Value and Extension, 99th percentile in fastball velocity and the 98th percentile in xERA. More simply, the Brewers are a must-watch whenever Misirowski is on the mound.

Expectations were high for Misiorowski after he burst onto the scene last year and earned an All-Star appearance after just five games, but there was some concern about his ability to be a true ace at this point in his career after he struggled in the second half. It is safe to say that Misiorowski has silenced those doubts.

The case for Shohei Ohtani:

6-2, 0.74 ERA, 61.0 IP, 67 K, 0.787 WHIP

The Dodgers have employed a cautious approach to Ohtani’s pitching, using a six-man rotation and only starting him once a week. Those lack of innings will make it difficult for Ohtani to truly compete for the Cy Young, but if he keeps pitching at this rate, voters will be faced with an unprecedented situation. Will they take his two-way production into account for the award?

On Wednesday, Ohtani pitched six scoreless innings, striking out six and only giving up two hits and one walk while reaching base five times. In his previous start, Ohtani threw six no-hit innings while hitting a leadoff home run. Until he gave up a double to Gabriel Moreno in the fourth inning, Ohtani had 9 ⅔ no-hit innings between his last two starts.

Ohtani’s 0.74 ERA is the third-lowest through 10 starts since earned runs first became a stat in 1913, and would be by far the best in MLB, but is currently one inning shy of qualifying. There is no doubt that Ohtani is the best player in baseball, and likely the best player of all time, but will he accrue enough pitching stats to add a Cy Young award to his seemingly-endless list of accomplishments?

Final verdict:

If the season ended today, just like how he won NL Pitcher of the Month in May, Sánchez would be the frontrunner to take home the NL Cy Young award. His scoreless streak is that impressive.

But, if Ohtani ends the season with a sub-one ERA and is able to reach 162 innings and qualify for rate stats, while also continuing to be one of the best hitters in the sport, voters will be faced with a very tough decision.

Buckle in, folks. This race will be so much fun to follow.

For years now, the Seattle Mariners have had one of the top rotations in MLB. Even more impressive is that nearly every piece of it was homegrown, rather than trading for established arms. Take a look at the first round picks in the 2018-2020 MLB drafts for Seattle. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock. In 2021, they got Bryce Miller in the 4th round and Bryan Woo in the 6th. In 2023 they grabbed Logan Evans in the 12th round. And in the last two years, Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson were added to the system. A monument to greatness and the most impressive part of Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners tenure. Let’s take a moment to give flowers for this legitimate and fantastic work done to draft all of these incredible arms.

Here’s the problem: there’s too many of them. The current Mariners rotation is overflowing already, with Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, and the lone non-farm system guy, Luis Castillo. Instead of a normal six-man rotation, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller have been thrown into an odd piggyback scenario that neither man seems to really enjoy. On Monday, after being pulled after throwing four scoreless innings, Luis Castillo seemed to take his frustration out on the bench, throwing his jacket around and looking annoyed. After finishing out the game, Bryce Miller expressed his thoughts on the piggyback simply in the postgame interview: “This setup’s not very comfortable”.

The Mariners are legitimately suffering from having too many good pitchers. Trading any of them would leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, and the only one this year who is actually underperforming in Castillo has a significant price tag on him that would affect his trade value. Castillo is owed $21.6 million this year, and it would be hard to find a suitable trade for him. If having to deal with these six great pitchers was the only problem, it would be a headache and a tough situation. But that’s not the only worry right now.

Kade Anderson has started eight games in AA Arkansas this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.63 ERA, 58 strikeouts to only 7 walks, and a 0.802 WHIP. He is absolutely murdering the minor leagues right now. Anderson looks like a Paul Skenes type to rise through the minor leagues in a single season, and if the Mariners called him up tomorrow nobody would be surprised. But where would he pitch? There’s no room. The Mariners have a genuine ace waiting in the minors that they can’t call up. Anderson might be better than some of the great pitchers in the rotation right now, but it doesn’t make sense to add a seventh player into this already dicey rotation situation.

If that wasn’t enough, there are two more names that I’ve mentioned already that are floating around. Logan Evans had a strong showing last season, but will miss this season with Tommy John surgery. He’ll be back in 2027 to make things more crowded, but he might find his spot taken by Anderson. Evans doesn’t have the ceiling that the rest of the rotation has, but he’s a consistent arm and a great guy to have when someone goes down. But with the logjam, Evans might not be the guy to go to anymore. The other name I mentioned is Ryan Sloan, the other threat in the minor leagues right now. Sloan and Anderson are both in every top 50 prospect list, even if Sloan’s numbers don’t jump off the page like Anderson’s do. Sloan’s 5.17 ERA this season in Arkansas doesn’t paint the full picture. Sloan has received a lot of praise for his pitch mix and his nasty stuff, and even if the results aren’t fully there this year, he has a major upside to the point that with these numbers he still makes every prospect ranking list.

So how do the Mariners solve this logjam? I have no idea. Getting rid of any of these arms would suck, but they can’t keep everyone, there just isn’t enough room. I’m really glad this isn’t a decision that I have to make, but no matter what the choice ends up being, someone will end up angry.

Go M’s

Henry “Remember when our best pitcher was Chris Flexen?” Neiman

Our latest BONUS video for paid subscribers is now live! I talk about pitching analytics with my former teammate and current Mets pitcher Robert Stock and break down the new pitching models we built.

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Breaking down Nolan McLean, Andrew Painter and Bubba Chandler

Corbin Burnes’ fastball

Changes Paul Skenes has made

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

Let's do a fun one. I have been getting back into the coaching the game and I need to get better acquainted with the state of the amateur game. What better way to do that... then scroll baseball TikTok. I know, playing with fire might be an understatement, but maybe it will be fun? There's only one way to find out... (15 mins)

The MLB season is a quarter of the way done already, so it time to check in! There are so many trends I'm noticing and these are the three that I DO NOT LIKE so far. Let's dive in... (20 mins)

The Astros throw the first No-Hitter in years, a rookie finishes one for the first time ever, the Cubs set a record for streaks in a single season in may, and we may have a new front runner for the best name in the league. Let's jump right in... (26 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about how well Juan Soto is hitting despite the Mets continuing to struggle.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Catch Probability

Catch probability represents the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four important pieces of information tracked by Statcast:

1. How far did the outfielder have to go? (”Distance needed”)

2. How much time did he have to get there? (”Opportunity time”)

3. What direction did he need to go in?

4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?

Accordingly, each tracked batted ball to the outfield is assigned a catch probability, which reflects how often outfielders have made the catch on comparable plays in the Statcast era.

The more time a fielder has to react to a ball, and the less distance needed to reach it, the higher (easier) the catch probability. The less time a fielder has to get to the ball, and the more distance he needs to cover to make the play, the lower (more difficult) the catch probability. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The New York Mets have been a disaster. Despite having the second-largest payroll in Major League Baseball according to FanGraphs’ RosterResource, they currently have a 23-33 record, are in last place in the National League East and are 14 games back of the Atlanta Braves for first place in their division.

Last season was similarly disappointing. On June 12, the Mets had a 45-24 record, the best in baseball at the time, and had a 5 ½ game lead in the NL East. They ended the season with an 83-79 record and just missed out on the third NL Wild Card spot to the Cincinnati Reds.

Amidst all of this turmoil, Juan Soto is still one of, if not the best hitters in MLB.

The 15-year, $765 million contract, the largest in professional sports history, that Juan Soto signed with the Mets ahead of the 2025 season came with enormous expectations. Before 2025, Soto’s age-26 season and first with the Mets, he had four All-Star appearances, five Silver Sluggers, three top-five MVP finishes and had played a key part in the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series title. He had rightfully earned a reputation as one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and was on his way to becoming an all-time great.

Despite the Mets’ lack of team success, Soto has, almost quietly, continued to produce at an extremely elite level. That has been especially true lately. Over Soto’s last seven games, he has six home runs. In 12 games going back to May 16, Soto is batting .386 with a 1.402 OPS. On the season, Soto is slashing .301/.392/.594 with 12 home runs despite all of the Mets injuries and offensive deficiencies. His .986 OPS would lead the NL if he had enough at-bats to qualify (he missed about two weeks in April with a right calf strain).

“He’s locked in,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after Soto homered in the Mets’ 4-2 win over the Red on Wednesday per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. “And he’s one of the best, if not the best at what he does. … He’s just a special player doing his thing.”

This is all happening despite the Mets failing to replace Pete Alonso, who batted behind Soto for the majority of last season and offered him much-needed protection. Bo Bichette, who the Mets signed to help replace Alonso’s offense, has been a major disappointment, and has not provided anywhere near the same amount of support as Alonso did behind Soto.

Soto’s performance last season was also overshadowed by the Mets’ late collapse. He finished 3rd in NL MVP voting, won a Silver slugger, led all of baseball with 127 walks, led the NL with 38 steals and a .396 OBP and hit a career-high 43 home runs.

It is difficult for Soto to ever truly live up to fans’ expectations because of his gargantuan contract. On an already expensive roster, Soto accounts for 13.9% of the Mets’ 2026 payroll. He does not offer much value in the field. He has a quieter disposition.

This past offseason, the NY Post’s Mike Puma reported that Soto and Francisco Lindor clashed in the clubhouse because of their contrasting personalities.

With the Mets continuing to underperform and Soto’s contract looming over everything he does, it is easy to understand how his performance can sometimes fly under the radar. Not only is Soto continuing to show that he is one of, if not the best hitters in MLB and a generational talent, but he may just be the player who is most important to their team’s success.

Soto has missed 17 of the Mets’ 56 games. In the 39 games Soto has played, the Mets have a 20-19 record. In the 17 he has missed, the Mets are 3-14. Without Soto, the Mets offense grinds to a halt.

This is not to say that Soto is even worth his contract. Despite Mets owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend seemingly knowing no bounds, Soto’s contract may eventually end up hamstringing the Mets’ ability to spend on other top free agents. Known as a below-average defender, Soto could end up as a full-time designated hitter sooner rather than later. It is difficult to think that anyone except for two-way global superstar Shohei Ohtani would be worth the kind of money Soto is being paid.

But, that should not take away from appreciating how great of a hitter he is and how much of a hot streak he is currently on. Mets fans would obviously prefer that come with a few more wins, but despite everything going on around him, Soto is continuing to hit. And that is what Cohen paid him to do,

Our latest BONUS video for paid subscribers is now live! I talk about pitching analytics with my former teammate and current Mets pitcher Robert Stock and break down the new pitching models we built.

I was a guest on ESPN’s Sources Tell Jeff Passan show, where I joined ESPN Senior MLB Insider Jeff Passan and Milwaukee Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski to talk about Pokémon!

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Little League home runs are on the rise

Which players have been hurt the most by ABS

Most underrated relievers

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

Baseball is a game that anyone can play. Unless you're a left handed catcher, or a shortstop, or you want to learn a splitter? Man lefties really got the short end of the baseball stick... but why?! Let’s get into it. (17 mins)

BONUS video for paid subscribers: A lot of baseball people don’t like analytics. Many players, however, like them so much that they created their own stats platform. This is a conversation about why that may be. (46 mins)

You may have heard of a pitcher having surgery to remove "loose bodies" from their elbow. But what does it mean? And if they need to be removed, how the HELL is Tarik Skubal back on the mound 12 days later?! Let me explain... (16 mins0

The San Francisco Giants entered 2026 with some new faces and excitement for some that were returning. After an 18-25 start and a trade of their catcher, a player widely considered the best in the league defensively at the position, they may be rethinking their strategy moving forward. So what will they do? Can they turn this thing around? Let's talk about it... (20 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about how well Shea Langeliers is playing this season.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Fast-swing Rate

Statcast defines a “fast swing” as one that reaches a swing speed of 75 MPH. A player’s “fast-swing rate” is simply showing the percentage of all of his swings that did reach 75 MPH. In the first month of 2024, 23% of all swings qualified as a ‘fast swing.’

Why 75 MPH? Similarly to how a hard-hit ball is one with 95 MPH+ of exit velocity as that’s where it begins to “matter,” 75 MPH of swing speed is where you see per-swing production reach league-average, with gains then accruing as swing speed increases (to a point). The difference between a hard swing and any slower swing that did not reach 75 MPH was considerable – there is great value in swinging harder. (via MLB)

Fast swing

.307 BA // .603 SLG // .389 wOBA // 52% hard-hit rate // +0.6 run value per 100

Not a fast swing

.246 BA // .369 SLG // .266 wOBA // 35% hard-hit rate // -3.2 run value per 100

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Not enough people are talking about Shea Langeliers. Maybe that is because he plays half of his games in a Triple-A ballpark in West Sacramento. Maybe that is because the Athletics have not made the postseason since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Regardless, Langeliers has blossomed into one of Major League Baseball’s very best two-way catchers.

As of Thursday, through 44 games, Langeliers has a .322/.394/.578 slash line with a .972 OPS, all career-highs. His 168 wRC+ is the third-best in MLB, only behind Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez and better than hitters like Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll. With 12 home runs so far, he is on pace to hit 44, which would also be a career high. Those 12 home runs are the best among AL catchers, and just one behind Drake Baldwin, who just went on the injured list with an oblique strain. Langeliers is also in the 99th percentile for xSLG, 98th for xwOBA and xBA and 97th percentile for Batting Run Value.

Langeliers is currently second in the AL in batting average behind Riley Greene, and FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe noted that he could join Joe Mauer (2006, ‘08, ‘09), Ernie Lombard (1938, ‘42), Bubbles Hargrave (1926) and Buster Posey (2012) as fifth catcher in MLB history to lead their league in batting average.

This offensive breakout did not come out of nowhere. Langeliers hit 22 home runs with a .681 OPS during his first full season in 2023, and his homer numbers and slash line have steadily improved every year since. But this season, he has truly become one of the game’s elite.

So, what has caused Lanegliers to make that jump?

Langeliers’ Barrel Rate is at 15.3%, up 4.0 from last season. His average Launch Angle is 20.0, up 3.6 degrees. His Fast Swing Rate is at 52.7%, up 4.6.

It makes a lot of sense why Langeliers is having a career year. He is swinging the bat faster and making more efficient contact, which is almost always a recipe for success at the plate.

“He’s awesome,” A’s pitcher Jeffrey Springs said after Langeliers hit his 100th career homer and 12th of the season on May 13 via MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. “He’s the heartbeat. He’s such a pro. From the pitching side, everything he does for the pitching staff, commanding the game, and then on the hitting side, you see what he’s doing. It’s unbelievable. It really is impressive to do it on both sides.”

Playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks, Langeliers has helped guide the A’s starting rotation to a 4.29 ERA, 18th in MLB, but still very impressive given the team’s home park and how unheralded that group was when they began the season.

Langeliers is also in the 95th percentile in Pop Time and 91st in Blocks Above Average and is an above-average Net ABS Overturns of 3.4. While he is not necessarily known as an elite defensive catcher, Langeliers fields the position well enough and is respected by his pitchers.

With Cal Raleigh’s shocking decline this season, the mantle for “best catcher” appears to be wide open. Baldwin, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, has been similarly dominant at the plate. But outside of him, unless Raleigh re-discovers his form at the plate or Aaron Boone decides to consistently play Ben Rice at catcher, then Langeliers should be in consideration alongside Baldwin for that title.

The A’s have had a lot of success extending their young players. Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker are all signed long-term, and the A’s pursued extensions with Nick Kurtz and Langeliers this offseason according to the NY Post’s Jon Heyman.

With Langeliers expected to hit free agency after the 2028 season, the year the A’s are scheduled to move to Las Vegas, signing him to an extension would give the team someone to build around in their new city and their new fans a franchise cornerstone who will be there for years to come to root for.

Despite their 25-24 record, the A’s are currently in first place in a down year for the AL West. Langeliers has been the biggest reason why the A’s have been able to capitalize and put themselves in position to potentially make a run at the postseason.

For years, the Astros have been the best team in baseball and the worst thing to ever happen to the Mariners. From 2015-2022, the Mariners had a 49-97 record against the Astros, culminating in the infamous 2022 ALDS sweep. The Astros were a dynasty, the most consistent powerhouse in baseball, and they enjoyed rubbing it in Mariner fans’ faces every single chance they could. There was nothing the Mariners could do to stop it.

But all that is gone. From 2023-now, the Mariners have flipped the script and gone 31-15 against the Astros, including a recently-snapped nine game winning streak. While the Astros have fallen from their perch as the team to beat in the league (thank god), the Mariners have finally been able to get some revenge on their most hated rival.

So what happened? How did the Mariners finally overcome the Astros? It’s not just one switch that got flipped.

The Hitting Core: For a few years leading up to 2022, the Astros slowly began to lose a few pieces of their core, but not fast enough to make a difference at first. George Springer left to the Blue Jays in 2021, and Carlos Correa departed for the Twins the year after. Unfortunately the lineup of rookie Jeramy Pena, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez was still horrifying enough to be great. But with Bregman and Tucker departing a few years later, the Astros stars continue to wink out one by one.

The Ace: Justin Verlander was the bane of the Mariners’ existence from 2017-2022, winning 2 Cy Young awards and leading the Astros pitching staff to two championships. In that time, Verlander went 11-2 against the Mariners with a 2.88 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 17 games. I remember whenever I watched the Mariners play against Verlander it felt like a guaranteed loss. It was such a blow to morale to lose to him over and over again. When Verlander went to the Mets in the 2022 offseason, it felt like a great weight was lifted off the shoulders of Mariners fans everywhere. No longer did we have to worry about Justin Verlander in our division.

The Aura: The lack of scare factor has been the downfall of the Astros since 2023. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have been good for them, but neither of them have quite the presence that Verlander did. Verlander was an unbreakable wall, and you always knew that Framber would break when bent. Yordan Alvarez is the scariest man in baseball when healthy, but a few injury ridden years have hurt his stock (although he’s off to a terrifying start this year). The Astros aren’t even the most hated team in the league anymore, as the recent run of dominance from the Dodgers seems to have taken that crown. It’s their worst nightmare: people don’t care about them like they used to.

Obviously the Mariners have improved over the last few years, it’s a night and day difference. But the Astros that have dominated a near decade of baseball are finally, Finally coming back down to Earth. Hou love to Sea it.

Go M’s,

Henry “Hoping to be Above .500 soon” Neiman

Our latest BONUS video for paid subscribers is now live! I talk about pitching analytics with my former teammate and current Mets pitcher Robert Stock and break down the new pitching models we built.

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Bryce Miller is back and Cal Raleigh hits the IL

How many pitches can the best pitcher throw?

Henry Davis’ development behind the plate

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

BONUS video for paid subscribers: A lot of baseball people don’t like analytics. Many players, however, like them so much that they created their own stats platform. This is a conversation about why that may be. (46 mins)

Jacob Misiorowski is better than us, and for more reasons than you might think. Let's jump into it… (12 mins)

There’s a name that you've likely heard time and time again if you follow Major League Baseball even a little bit: Driveline, a baseball facility in Washington state that took some radical ideas about player development and turned them into some of the most highly sought philosophies by numerous professional organizations. So who are they, what do they do, and why do so many baseball lifers role their eyes when their name is mentioned? Let me explain... (19 mins)

The worst MLB teams aren't the worst MLB teams right now. What changed? Let me explain... (14 mins)

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My producer, David Korn, previewed the Trade Deadline and wrote up four bold mock trades.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Ballpark Factor

Ballpark factor, at its most basic, takes the runs scored by Team X (and its competitors) in Team X’s home ballpark and divides the figure by the runs scored by Team X and its competitors in Team X’s road contests. Often times, that number will be ever-so-slightly adjusted if a team doesn’t play the same opponents at home as on the road.

For example: In 2018, 849 runs were scored at Coors Field, and 676 runs were scored in Rockies games away from Coors Field. Coors Field had a park factor of 1.271, when looking at runs scored.

Park factor is a great way of determining the extent to which a stadium favors hitters or pitchers. It isn’t affected by the teams or players involved, because those teams and players are also playing games in other stadiums. It simply compares how easy it is to score, from one ballpark to another. (via MLB)

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Looking at the division races, the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are tied for last place in the AL Central with 19-24 records, but are all just four games back of the first-place Cleveland Guardians. In the AL West, the Texas Rangers (21-22) are 1 ½ games back and the Seattle Mariners (21-23) are two games back of the first-place Athletics. Every team in the NL Central is above .500.

The Boston Red Sox, who are in last place in the AL East with a 18-24 record, are still just 2 1/2 games back of the third Wild Card spot.

The most significant consequence of this parity–absolute chaos at the trade deadline. Will teams in the American League decide to go all-in even if they are hovering around .500 because of the weaker field? Will one of the disappointing teams with a high payroll, like the Red Sox, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies or San Francisco Giants sell?

It is still early, but here are four bold moves that teams could make ahead of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline on Aug. 3 at 6:00 p.m. ET.

1. New York Yankees receive: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels receive: LHP Ryan Weathers, OF Spencer Jones (Yankees No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline)

With Mike Trout returning to near-MVP form, now makes the most sense for a struggling Los Angeles Angels team to finally cut bait from their superstar and sell high while he is still healthy and performing. Trout has 11 home runs, a .936 OPS, a 160 wRC+ and is playing solid defense in center field. But, in an all-too-familiar situation, the Angels are in last place in a weak AL West with a 16-28 record and are still not able to string together wins even with a healthy Trout.

The Yankees could be a perfect trade partner for Trout. Center field is one of the few positions that New York could look to upgrade, with Trent Grisham hitting under .200 and regressing back to how he performed at the plate the last few seasons. The Angels have struggled to produce young starting pitchers, and with Carlos Rodon back in the rotation and Gerrit Cole on the way, the Yankees suddenly have a surplus of starting arms.

Ryan Weathers has been a revelation for the Yankees since they traded for him from the Miami Marlins this past offseason. Trading him would hurt, but with a wide-open American League and an aging core, the Yankees should be going all-in on this season. Throwing the hulking 6’7” Jones, one of the Yankees’ top prospects, in, should be enough to get Trout to the Bronx and finally give the all-time great a chance to finally compete for a championship.

2. Seattle Mariners receive: SS CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals receive: 2B Cole Young, RHP Ryan Sloan (MLB No. 22, Mariners No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline)

With Eli Willits, who was recently named the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline and was the first overall pick in last year’s draft, getting off to a great start to his pro career, the Nationals can afford to move on from CJ Abrams. Abrams is infamously streaky and is a sub-par defender at shortstop, and trading him while he still has team control before he is expected to hit free agency after the 2028 season would allow the Nationals to continue to stock up their minor league system in this stage of their organizational rebuild under new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni.

The Seattle Mariners need more offense. Many projected them to run away with the AL West, and that just has not happened. The pitching has shown up for the most part, but the real issues have come on offense. The biggest shock has of course been Cal Raleigh, who was in the midst of an 0-38 streak at the plate before singling on Tuesday and is hitting .166. Raleigh should be able to eventually figure it out, but there are other holes throughout the Mariners’ lineup, especially in the middle of the infield.

The Mariners could capitalize on 22-year-old Cole Young’s unexpected start and move him, along with some other pitching prospects, to Washington for Abrams. Abrams is on his way to a career-year at the plate with nine home runs and a .921 OPS and would immediately slot in at the top of the Mariners’ lineup. Defensively, he could shift over to second base long-term to make room for the recently-extended Colt Emerson at shortstop, which may be a more natural fit for him anyway.

3. Athletics receive: RHP Clay Holmes, New York Mets receive: OF Henry Bote (A’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and 3B/1B Tommy White (A’s No. 9)

Clay Holmes has far out-performed the three-year, $38 million contract he signed with the New York Mets last offseason while transitioning to a starting role. This season especially, he has a 1.86 ERA through eight starts and is likely to exercise his opt-out this offseason if he keeps pitching this way. If Holmes signals to the Mets that he is going to opt-out, then the responsible thing for them to do would be to send him off and try and get some value back.

The Athletics are in first place in the AL West, and if they are still in that position in July, then they will need to trade for a starting pitcher if they want to make any sort of noise in the postseason. Half a season of Holmes should not be too expensive, and the A’s have enough prospect depth with Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker all signed long-term where they are able to make these sorts of win-now trades without mortgaging their future.

The Mets need more young position player depth to support their young starters, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, and the A’s can provide that. Rookie Carson Benge has had a disappointing start to his Major League career, Bo Bichette does not necessarily look like the answer for the Mets at third base and Marcus Semien is showing his age at second. This would be a rare move that the A’s would be makign for the present, and would give them some positive momentum ahead of their eventual move to Las Vegas.

4. San Diego Padres receive: LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers receive: RHP Bradgley Rodriguez, C Ethan Salas (MLB No. 52, Padres No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and LHP Kash Mayfeld (Padres No. 4)

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller is known for taking huge swings at the trade deadline. No one expected him to acquire guys like Juan Soto or Mason Miller. With the Padres currently in first place in the NL West, a ½ game above the Los Angeles Dodgers, why not go all-in on this season and get arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal, to round out their depleted starting rotation?

It could take less than initially expected to trade for Skubal because of the surgery he just underwent to remove a loose body from his left elbow, but because of the new procedure used by Dr. Neal ElAttrache that superagent Scott Boras coined the “Skubal Scope,” he could be back pitching for the Detroit Tigers by early June. Having any type of surgery complicates things, especially in a contract year, and it could give Preller just enough of a window to grab Skubal and load up for the postseason.

Even though the Padres, or any other team trading for Skubal would only be getting him for a few months, the price for him would still be steep. Catching prospect Ethan Salas has been lighting it up in the minor leagues and Bradgley Rodriguez is one of the best young relievers in baseball and could step into the closer role for the Tigers going forward. The reality for the Tigers is that if they do not believe they can sign Skubal, then they must trade him. With all of their other injuries and Framber Valdez’s struggles, it does not look like the Tigers are contenders this year, making the potential decision to trade Skubal more palatable.

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