Go Ms,

Henry “22-0” Neiman

I will be going live on Twitch and YouTube today at 5:00 p.m. ET/2:00 p.m. PT to play the MLB lockout simulator role player game! Make sure to join and hop in the chat!

I pitched for the Savannah Bananas last weekend at Target Field in Minneapolis! Make sure to stay tuned on my socials and on the Trevor May Baseball YouTube channel for content from my day with the Bananas.

Make sure you’re following me on Instagram and TikTok for all of my latest content!

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday YouTube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

The two best teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Brewers, face off in a three-game set. This was last year’s NLCS. Will it be this year’s too?

Jackson Jobe makes his second start back from Tommy John surgery tonight for the Tigers in a huge AL Central game against the White Sox.

The D-backs are surging. Can they keep making progress in the Wild Card race against the Braves?

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

What pitchers are really thinking on the mound

Breaking down the rare fourth-out rule

Inside my appearance with the Savannah Bananas

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about the surging Padres.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Jump

Jump is a Statcast metric that shows which players have the fastest reactions and most direct routes in the outfield. It’s defined as: “How many feet did he cover in the right direction in the first three seconds after pitch release?”

In addition, Jump can be broken down into three components.

• Reaction: Feet covered (in any direction) in the first 1.5 seconds. Think of it like a way to measure first step.

• Burst: Feet covered (in any direction) in the second 1.5 seconds. Think of it like a way to measure acceleration.

• Route: Compares feet covered in any direction to feet covered in the correct direction over the full three seconds.

(via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The San Diego Padres had a 50-53 record on Thursday, July 23 after losing three out of four to the Atlanta Braves. They were in third place in the National League West, 15 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers and four games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were fifth in the NL Wild Card race behind the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh Pirates and four games back of the D-Backs for the third Wild Card spot.

Heading into the trade deadline, there were actual conversations being had about whether or not the Padres should be sellers. Was this team good enough to invest in? Would the Padres notoriously ultra-aggressive president of baseball operations A.J. Preller really give up on his super-bullpen and try to flip Mason Miller after acquiring him at last year’s deadline?

Those fears have been assuaged for now. Since July 23, the Padres have gone 14-4, catapulting themselves into the second NL Wild Card spot, leapfrogging the Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies in the standings.

And as many could have predicted, Preller was indeed a buyer at the trade deadline, and somehow found enough talent in the Padres’ depleted farm system to strike deals for Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to reinvigorate their starting rotation.

Since July 23, the Padres have the fourth-highest scoring offense in MLB and are second with a .280 team batting average. Up to July 23, the Padres were 24th in runs and 28th with a .230 average. Despite featuring household names like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill, the Padres offense was a legitimate concern. That has changed.

Merrill has five home runs and a 180 wRC+ in the 18 games since the Padres were four games back in the NL Wild Card race. Tatis, who did not hit his first home run of 2026 until May 30, has 4. Ty France, who has quietly been the Padres most consistent hitter all season, is hitting .362.

Over the last 18 games, the Friars have also gotten three walk-off wins, including their 11th-inning walk-off on Wednesday courtesy of catcher Luis Campusano to clinch the series sweep over the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers.

The blueprint going into the season for the Padres was clear. Give the bullpen a lead and let them take it from there. Mason Miller leads the NL with 30 saves and has an unfathomable 0.88 ERA and 16.3 SO/9. 22-year-old Bradgley Rodriguez has been a revelation with a 2.13 ERA across 50 appearances. Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta and Jeremiah Estrada have both continued to be elite leverage arms. For the most part, if their starters can go five or six innings, the bullpen is able to take it from there.

That is how they have been winning games lately. Six of their last 14 wins have been by one run. Two more of those wins have been by two runs. Miller has recorded six saves. Morejon also picked up a save on Aug. 2 after Miller had pitched in three of the previous four days (recording two saves and a win).

Going back to July 23, the bullpen has pitched 89 ⅔ innings, the most in baseball, and has a 2.41 ERA, the second-best in baseball in that stretch.

The question is: is it sustainable for them to keep winning games like this? Their run differential is just +1, the second-lowest of any team currently in the postseason picture (after the Texas Rangers and their -34 RD).

If any team can win on the margins like this, it’s this year’s Padres and their star-studded relief aces. No team is better built to handle one or two-run leads than San Diego.

Games get shorter in the postseason. The Padres ability to shorten games with their bullpen becomes even more valuable. That was put on display during last year’s Wild Card round loss to the Cubs. Even though they did not advance, the Padres successfully used Miller, Morejon and Estrada in multi-inning roles. If their rotation is able to keep a lead, Miller and co. will be able to shut the door.

The Padres have suddenly become very formidable. This team has had the talent and the buy-in from the front office, making it to the postseason in four of the last six seasons and going as far as the NLCS in 2022. Even though their division rival, the reigning back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers, are a seemingly omnipresent roadblock, this Padres team might just be built to take them down and make a legitimate run in October.

Missed my live streams? Stay tuned…

Make sure you’re following me on Instagram and TikTok for all of my latest content!

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

Jose Soriano is scheduled to make his first start as a Blue Jay tonight against the Phillies.

Max Fried is pitching against his former team, the Atlanta Braves, for the first time tonight.

There’s a HUGE AL Central series between the division-leading White Sox and second-place Guardians!

My guy Bob Stock is scheduled to start against the high-scoring Pirates on Saturday! Check out my conversation with him about pitching analytics here:

NEW STUFF

📺 WATCH 📺

Depending on where you are as a player, the trade deadline means different things for different players. Fortunately, I've been most of them at some point. So, let's talk about how different players react to the trade deadline... (13 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about the biggest winners and losers from the trade deadline.

My writer, Henry Neiman, recapped the Mariners’ trade deadline.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)

DRS quantifies a player’s entire defensive performance by attempting to measure how many runs a defender saved. It takes into account errors, range, outfield arm and double-play ability. It differs only slightly from UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in its formula, but the concept is the same.

DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions data to chart where each ball is hit. Say, for instance, a center fielder sprints to make a nice catch on a fly ball. Then, say data from BIS tells us that similar fly balls get caught 60 percent of the time. That center fielder gains, essentially, 0.4 bonus points for difficulty. If he can’t make the play, he loses 0.6 points. At the end of the day, that player’s overall score gets adjusted to the league average -- and then that score gets adjusted for how many runs the once-adjusted score is worth. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Here are some of the biggest winners and losers after the deadline.

Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

This one is easy. The Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Tarik Skubal. Skubal is the reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner in the American League and if the Dodgers rotation is healthy, there is a legitimate argument for them having the best group of starting pitchers ever assembled, even rivaling the Atlanta Braves’ Hall of Fame trio of Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine in the 90s.

Here is how the Dodgers could line up their rotation for a seven game series:

Game 1: Skubal

Game 2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2025 World Series MVP)

Game 3: Shohei Ohtani

Game 4: Blake Snell (two-time Cy Young winner)

Game 5: Skubal

Game 6: Yamamoto

Game 7: Ohtani

That means Tyler Glasnow and Justin Wrobleski, who was named to his first All-Star team this year, would likely move to the bullpen. For a lot of teams, guys like Glasnow or Wrobleski would be starting Game 1.

While trading for Skubal stole most of the headlines, the Dodgers also made a few under-the-radar moves to shore up the rest of their roster. They took a flyer on Kris Bubic, who is currently on the 60-day IL. Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said that they’re currently planning on using Bubic out of the bullpen when he gets off the IL, but having someone who made an All-Star team with a 2.55 ERA last season as a starter as a “break glass in case of emergency” option is an incredible luxury.

The Dodgers also responded to injuries to their catchers Will Smith and Dalton Rushing by adding depth behind the plate, bringing back Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia, who both have both spent time in the organization and are familiar with the pitching staff.

Loser: Milwaukee Brewers

Much to the chagrin of the majority of baseball fans, the Milwaukee Brewers failed to trade for Skubal, allowing the Dodgers to swoop in and grab him. Would it have been the right move to match the deal the Dodgers gave the Detroit Tigers? That is debatable, According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, the Brewers offered three hitting prospects, with the headliner being 19-year-old shortstop Luis Peña, the No. 18 prospect in MLB per MLB Pipeline. One of the other two prospects was also in the top 100, and the other was just outside. But, the Tigers wanted controllable starting pitching, and got it from the Dodgers with River Ryan. In the Brewers case, that would have meant moving 24-year-old Logan Henderson, who has a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts this season. Including a player like Henderson goes against how the Brewers operate.

While it may end up being the correct long-term decision for the Brewers to not trade for Skubal, it is still incredibly disappointing to see them only add Dustin May and JoJo Romero at the deadline. This is a team that has the best record in baseball and one of the deepest minor league systems. That is the textbook definition of a buyer. Just in the Brewers’ own division, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates both made significant additions (more on that later).

Many were hoping this would be the year where the Brewers finally push all their chips in and really buy at the deadline. Maybe that was just nostalgia from 2008 when they acquired CC Sabathia at the deadline and he put together one of the most impressive two-month stretches in MLB history. Regardless, it is still disappointing to see such a fun and talented team not be more aggressive.

Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates did not make any monumental moves. But, they acted in a way that indicated they are trying to win and push for their first postseason berth since 2015. Pittsburgh has the third-highest scoring offense and a talented starting rotation led by All-Stars Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft. Their biggest need was bullpen help, and they certainly addressed that.

They brought in multiple players with closing experience like Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval and Kirby Yates, along with Lake Bachar from the Miami Marlins. While Doval and Yates are no longer necessarily ninth-inning options anymore, Weaver has had an excellent season with the struggling New York Mets before being traded. He has a 1.84 ERA and will almost certainly be in the mix to close games alongside Gregory Soto.

While none of the players acquired by the Pirates are world-beaters, these moves filled a clear hole in their roster and set them up to compete. They showed they were more serious this offseason when they finally made some real moves by signing Ryan O’Hearn and trading for Brandon Lowe. And that continued at the deadline. These types of trades for veteran relievers are win-now moves. Even if the Pirates do not end up making the postseason this year, this is another sign that there is a clear shift in the way the organization is operating.

Loser: Atlanta Braves

Like the Brewers, the Atlanta Braves are ahead in their division and fighting for one of the first two seeds in the NL that would guarantee them a bye past the Wild Card round into the Division Series. While the Braves have been playing great this season, their starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries.

The only addition to the rotation they made was trading for Tyler Mahle from the San Francisco Giants. Mahle has a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts and is not the type of impact player many Braves fans were hoping for. They also made some smaller depth moves for outfielder Lane Thomas and reliever Brent Suter, but given how many starting pitchers were being dealt and the relatively low price it would have taken to acquire someone better than Mahle, it is difficult to understand why the Braves were not more aggressive.

Kevin Gausman cost the Cubs two prospects ranked in the 15-20 range. Kris Bubic cost the Dodgers a prospect outside their top 30. Pitchers were available for affordable prices. Even if the Braves did not want to include any higher-level prospects, they could have at least grabbed another depth piece or two at a similar price to what they spent for Mahle.

Winner: Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels finally made some progress. Mike Trout, Zach Neto and Reid Detmers are still on the team, but interim general manager John Mozeliak sold off some legitimate pieces to help restock the farm system.

Jose Soriano, who cooled down significantly after his other-worldly start to the season, went to the Toronto Blue Jays for a deal centered around shortstop Arjun Nimmala, the No. 43 prospect in MLB and now the Angels’ No. 2 prospect per MLB Pipeline. Moises Ballesteros, who the Angels acquired for reliever Ryan Zeferjahn, is just 22, came into the season as the Cubs starting DH and has the potential to be a real impact bat. These types of players are legitimate building blocks.

The biggest blight on the Angels was when they did not trade Shohei Ohtani ahead of the 2023 trade deadline, failing to capitalize on the immense value he still held even though he would be a free agent after that season, and losing him to the Dodgers for nothing. It does not look like the Angels under the leadership of Mozeliak will make those same mistakes. They might not be competitive next season, but if this trade deadline is any indication, the Angels might finally be getting serious about building a true contender.

Loser: New York Yankees

Did the New York Yankees get better? Yes. Luis Garcia was arguably the best bat to be moved at the deadline and he has already made an impact in the Bronx, hitting a go-ahead two-run home run in his first game in pinstripes. But, the Yankees failed to address their two biggest needs, catcher and the bullpen, and instead added to a position where they already have a surplus of talent.

The Ben Rice/Paul Goldschmidt first base platoon is one of the best position groups in MLB. This situation works for now because Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are still out and Rice can DH, but when the Yankees are at full strength, there will not be enough spots in the lineup for them to play all of their best hitters.

What makes the deadline even worse for the Yankees is that their two biggest competitors in the AL East each added catchers. The Boston Red Sox swung a huge deal for Adley Rutschman and the Tampa Bay Rays made a more value-conscious move for Liam Hicks. It is not fair to say that the Yankees should have out-bid the Red Sox for Rutschman, but they could have made a play for Hicks, tried to pry Ryan Jeffers away from the Minnesota Twins or taken a flyer on a guy like Logan O’Hoppe, who was basically a throw-in in a trade that sent Chase Silseth to the Rangers.

Not sure: Philadelphia Phillies

The Luis Arraez trade is fascinating. In Classic Dave Dombrowski fashion, the always-aggressive Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations went and got one of the best players available at the deadline. Ahead of the deadline, it looked like the Phillies’ biggest need was a right-handed hitting outfielder. Arraez is a left-handed hitting second baseman. But, he is one of the best bats alongside Rutschman and Garcia to be moved at the deadline and complements the power-hitting Phillies offense very nicely.

In order to fit Arraez into the lineup at second base, where he suddenly became an elite defender with the Giants under the tutelage of Ron Washington, a lot of pieces and to move around. Bryston Stott moved from second to third. Alec Bohm moved from third to first. And in the biggest move, Bryce Harper moved from first base to outfield, where he has not played since he injured his elbow in 2022 and changed positions to first base to limit the amount he would have to throw.

The Phillies already ranked last in Defensive Runs Saved before this. While Arraez will be a defensive upgrade at second over Stott, the potential impact this could have on the rest of the field where three players are moving positions could be problematic. While some argue that defense as a whole is overrated, this team-wide mid-season change to a team’s defensive alignment is relatively unprecedented.

First things first, a moment of silence for Luis Castillo. Trading for him at the deadline in 2022 felt like the beginning of this era of contention for the Mariners. I remember freaking out in my friend’s basement, excited that the Mariners had swiped a good player out from under the Yankees. His first start in Seattle against that same Yankees team ended up being the game of the year, and cemented him immediately as the savior of the 2022 Mariners. And of course his Wild Card Game 1 start against the Blue Jays was nothing short of a masterpiece. Luis Castillo was a lovable, talented, impactful player for the Mariners, and he will be missed. All that to say, it was a good trade.

The Mariners got OF Nolan Jones, RHP Seranthony Dominguez, and catching prospect Boston Smith, along with the White Sox taking on the rest of Luis Castillo’s contract. 2026 Luis Castillo never found his form in Seattle, with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 99 innings. He was the odd man out all year, but hopefully he can find himself in Chicago. The White Sox are taking on the remainder of his contract, which is another two years and $49 million.

Seranthony Dominguez is the big bullpen get at the deadline. Dominguez is not the powerful arm he has been in years past, with a 4.89 ERA and 12 saves this season for Chicago. For a bullpen that needed a boost, he could provide that, but his first appearance last night went about as poorly as you could ask for, giving up 2 home runs in 0.1 innings, all but falling on his face out of the gate. So if this is the state of the Mariners bullpen, Matt Brash is sorely needed back soon.

Nolan Jones probably won’t see the majors this season unless someone else gets hurt (always a possibility) but he’s been fine, slashing .252/.357/.436 in the minors this season. He’s a decent backup piece, but probably nothing more. Doesn’t really move the needle. Boston Smith does interest me, slashing .286/.444/.580 across three levels of minor league ball this season. He is raking down there, and could find himself working his way up sooner rather than later. Obviously his major league time is blocked by Cal Raleigh, but there’s always a good fight for the backup spot. Overall, this was a solid trade for the Mariners (unless Dominguez pitches like that every game), but it was clear that another move was needed.

Thankfully, there was another move. Taylor Ward is having a decent season in Baltimore, although his power is down from his time in LA. Slashing .245/.381/.344 with 7 home runs is solid, but not explosive. The Mariners needed a right handed outfielder and Ward does hit the mark. The Ward pickup feels like a microcosm of the season as a whole; a good plan on paper, but feels disappointing. Ward will be decent but not fantastic probably, and along with the other pickups will probably make the team better overall. But at the end of the deadline, this is not a World Series team. And maybe we all knew that, but seeing where everyone is at 3pm on Monday really set in that this is a baseball team that will probably go out in the Wild Card round.

I’m going to divert for three seconds to talk about Tarik Skubal. I hate it, I hate that the Dodgers paid peanuts for him, I hate that there was a clearly better offer from the Brewers that the Tigers didn’t take, and I hate that all the MLB media is like “wow the Dodgers have such an amazing farm system to get these good players!” and then River Ryan headlines a Tarik Skubal trade. Screw you, LA, I hope you get swept by the Padres in the NLDS for the next decade. I know that a salary cap doesn’t fix any of this, but it doesn’t mean these moves don’t infuriate me. Doesn’t anyone else want to win?

The Mariners have had a good run at the trade deadline these past few years, consistently upgrading while not getting rid of any meaningful good prospects. But it feels like in a season with so much frustration, maybe a bigger swing was needed. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but for now I’m still waiting on Taylor Ward’s first Mariners hit. I’ll wait.

Go M’s,

Henry “The New Spider-Man Movie Was Pretty Good Actually” Neiman

Make sure you’re following me on Instagram and TikTok for all of my latest content!

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

The trade deadline is on Monday at 6:00 p.m. ET! These next few days could get crazy…

The Phillies are playing the Orioles this weekend. Could we see a dugout switch (maybe Taylor Ward or Trevor Rogers)?

The White Sox had two straight extra inning walk-offs against the Yankees. Can they keep it up against the AL-best Rays?

One of my favorite pitchers to watch, Payton Tolle, is going up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers on Saturday.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Bryce Harper and Don Mattingly’s comments

Rangers trade for Chase Silseth and Logan O’Hoppe

Which pitchers we would want to trade for

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

I just realized I’ve played in EVERY major league ball park… so why not give you my takes (whether you want ‘em or not). (23 mins)

Before the season began, we gave our 11 bold predictions for how we thought the season would pan out. Today, we’re going to check in and see how they are doing so far. Let’s jump right in... (12 mins)

Mason Miller could be on the move AGAIN? The Angels are open to offloading EVERYONE? Let's dive right in on the latest MLB trade rumors... (22 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, Henry Neiman, wrote about the Mariners tough schedule coming up.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Expected Batting Average (xBA)

Expected Batting Average (xBA) is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit.

Each batted ball is assigned an xBA based on how often comparable balls -- in terms of exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed -- have become hits since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. (As of January 2019, xBA now factors in a batter’s seasonal Sprint Speed on “topped” or weakly hit” balls).

For example, a line drive to the outfield with an xBA of .700 is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The Mariners have the 23rd hardest strength of schedule remaining, but as a good joke, MLB put all the hard games in August. Over the next month, the Mariners will have to play the Rays, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox, after coming off of the Rangers and Dodgers.

This is not good. This is in fact bad. I don’t want to see this already struggling Mariners team have to tackle two division leaders, the team that just won 15 games in a row, their own biggest rival, the team that employs the god among men Kyle Schwarber, the team that employs Mariner killer Alex Bregman, and the goddamn New York Yankees. In one month.

This is a Mariners team that cannot catch a break. After giving up the division lead to the Rangers, they have come out of the All-Star break looking very sloppy. Dropping a series out of the gate to the formidable last place Cincinnati Reds is not a sign that the rest of the season is going to go well. So what does last year’s AL runner-up have to do to even think about making a run in October? Let’s go through this horrid-looking month of baseball to find out what these games will look like.

Vs Twins (7/31-8/2): The Twins might be buyers at the deadline, sitting around the same place as the Mariners, so this Twins team wants to win this series badly. Put your hopes in Cole Young to have the same performance as he did earlier in the year against this team.

Vs Tigers (8/4-8/6): Avoid Skubal, or hope he’s been traded by then. This will be the easiest series of the month, which means nothing. Without Skubal, the Tigers have Framber Valdez and not much else. I haven’t been scared of Framber for years now, and the Mariners know how to get to him. Run back the ALDS, and win it again.

Vs Rays (8/7-8/8): Don’t pitch to Junior Caminero. Just don’t do it. I can already picture George Kirby giving up a 4th inning, 3-run shot to him. Just avoid him and hope for the best.

@ Yankees (8/11-8/13): This will have to be a pitcher’s duel, which is not ideal knowing how the Mariners pitch on the road. The only one I trust to perform in Yankee Stadium is Logan Gilbert. Don’t get swept, and don’t let Ben Rice get too many hits.

@ Astros (8/14-8/16): The Astros can’t pitch. They haven’t been able to all season. This is a good series to find footing again if the last few didn’t go well. Julio in mid-August rakes in Houston. The Mariners could sweep this series if they really find it within themselves. Just score six runs a game and don’t be surprised when Yordan Alvarez hits bombs.

@ Brewers (8/18-8/20): The Miz is going to turn this team into a statistic, maybe “most strikeouts where the batter’s helmet flew off” or “most sheepish look walking back to the dugout”. I dread seeing the postgame interviews after that one. Grin and bear it.

Vs Cubs (8/21-8/23): Last year these teams scored about one billion runs in three games. But this year the series is in Seattle, and Cal Raleigh is not himself. I still expect a slugfest, but temper your expectations a little. Maybe this is still a time for Cal to shine.

Vs Phillies (8/24-8/26): The Phillies are 6-3 against the Mariners in the last 3 seasons, and obliterated them in three games last year. The Phillies are gearing up for a playoff run, and the desperation is there with their aging lineup. The Mariners have been lacking in conviction recently, something Philly will not struggle with. Right now, they will want it more. Some sort of Philly spirit maybe?

@ Blue Jays (8/28-8/30): Obliterate them. Embarrass them. Let the Cal Raleigh that we all know is in there loose. Canada hates Cal Raleigh. Get mad. Get even. I need to take a break and go throw darts at the picture of George Springer I have on the wall.

@ Red Sox (8/31-9/2): I was really hoping that the Red Sox would be selling, and the Mariners could get Garrett Whitlock from them. That prospect is gone now, and the Red Sox have jumped the line into a playoff spot. Who knows if that was a fluke, but as of right now they are a contender again, and it would have been really nice to not have to worry about them. But that’s how this season has gone, I guess. Just get to their starters, and don’t get into a situation where this Mariners lineup needs clutch hits against Whitlock or Chapman.

Looking at all that, it will take some sort of miracle to come out of this month in a playoff spot, or even with a chance at one. September will be a much easier month, with a large handful of Angels and Athletics games in there, but that won’t matter if the Mariners’ season is already over by September 1st.

This has been a frustrating season (I think I have written that sentence for the last three posts), and if something doesn’t change, it’s going to be over very soon.

Go M’s,

Henry “Ugh” Neiman

Make sure you’re following me on Instagram and TikTok for all of my latest content!

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

The Padres and Marlins are both on the edge of buying or selling at the trade deadline. They’re playing each other this weekend. There’s a lot on the line in Miami…

HUGE AL West showdown between the first-place Rangers and the second-place Mariners, who are just 1/2 games back.

Really fun pitchers’ duel on Saturday at Fenway Park between Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray!

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

How pitchers adjust

Tanner Bibee pitching deeper into starts

Eury Perez’s growth this season

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

Modern pitchers have to make adjustments CONSTANTLY. Frankly, the ability to make those adjustments quickly is one of the major reasons guys stay around longer than their talent alone could have kept them there. For me, adjustments were most important when it came to my breaking balls. Today I want to share every grip I used and why it was inevitable that I would need to change them. Let's get into it. (14 mins)

Everyone knows about the iPads in MLB dugouts, but not exactly what’s on them. Well, it turns out, the league didn’t fully know either. AI apps were becoming a craze in the iPads and now they are banned. What exactly happened and what does it mean? Let’s dive in... (14 mins)

The Red Sox are on an all-time heater, but can they keep it going? I think so. Let me explain... (14 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about how Shohei Ohtani is not a lock for the NL MVP anymore now that his left knee injury is keeping him off the mound.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Fielding Run Value

Fielding Run Value (FRV) combines all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics into one stat that measures a player’s overall defensive value.

FRV is measured on a run-base scale -- it shows the runs a player saves from his defense, compared to an average player. A positive Fielding Run Value reflects above-average defensive performance, while a negative Fielding Run Value reflects below-average defensive performance.

Since Statcast uses different scales for different individual areas of defensive performance -- range, throwing, framing, blocking, double plays, etc. -- the conversion to one, run-based scale is necessary to place all performance on the same level. This allows defenders of all positions to be compared to one another.

• Outs Above Average (range): 1 out = .9 runs (outfielders) // 1 out = .75 runs (infielders)

• Fielder Throwing Runs: 1 throwing run = 1 run

• Catcher Blocking: 1 block saved = .25 runs

• Catcher Framing: 1 strike saved = .125 runs

• Catcher Throwing: 1 SB prevented = .65 runs

• Double Plays: 1 DP added = .4 runs

(via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The assumption is that if Shohei Ohtani has a full season at the plate and at least some production on the mound, he will be the National League Most Valuable Player. He has won four MVPs in the last five seasons, only missing out in 2022 when Aaron Judge had his historic 62-homer season. Each of his four MVP wins have been unanimous.

But this year, there is a chance for someone else to challenge Ohtani for the MVP (or at least steal a few votes away from him).

Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 due to a lingering left knee injury. Ohtani did throw about a 30-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday, but Dave Roberts has still not given much of an indication about when he will return to pitching in games. Knowing the Dodgers, they will be extremely cautious with their two-way superstar and be as conservative as possible.

If Ohtani does not pitch again this regular season, he’d end with a 1.79 ERA and 85 ⅔ innings through 14 starts. Last season, he returned to pitching in June after having Tommy John surgery in Sept. 2023. At first, he was only pitching an inning or two at a time but ramped up to be ready for a full workload in the postseason. Through 14 starts, Ohtani pitched just 47 innings and had a 2.87 ERA.

While Ohtani has already done more on the mound this season than he did last season, he has had much less production at the plate. He currently has a .917 OPS and is on pace for 35 home runs, which would both be his lowest since 2022 (when he finished second in MVP).

Ohtani will likely pitch again during the regular season. But, the Dodgers have the best record in the National League (65-38), are 11 ½ games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West and are five games up on the Atlanta Braves, who currently slot in as the third seed in the NL and would have to play in the Wild Card round. Especially with Blake Snell expected to return in the next few weeks, the Dodgers should have enough rotation depth to comfortably get them a first-round bye. Roberts could ramp up Ohtani similarly to how he did last season in order to have him at his best for the postseason.

So, if Ohtani’s standing as the presumptive NL MVP is at risk, who is his biggest challenger?

The most likely candidate to take MVP votes away from Ohtani is Chicago Cubs superstar outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Crow-Armstrong is the only player in MLB to have surpassed the 20-homer, 20-steal threshold so far and is considered by most to be the best defensive center fielder in the world. Because of his elite defensive numbers (MLB-best 20 Outs Above Average), PCA actually has a higher fWAR than Ohtani. Like Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong is dominating in multiple facets of the game. There is no one in baseball who has a better combination of power, speed and defense.

The biggest reason why Crow-Armstrong has made the leap from All-Star caliber player to legitimate MVP candidate is his ability to get on base more consistently. Just from last season, his walk rate has gone up from 4.5% to 11.7%, his BAbip has gone up from .276 to .353 and his overall OBP has improved from .287 to .383.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell had some incredibly high praise for Crow-Armstrong’s improvement (via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian).

“The rate at which it’s improved and how fast it’s improved,” Counsell said, “I don’t have any comparisons to it. I don’t have a great explanation for it. I think it’s just a great athlete coming into his own as a great player.”

Crow-Armstrong is on pace for 33 homers, 40 steals and currently has a .900 OPS. He is also a shoo-in for a Gold Glove and will be in contention for a Silver Slugger in what should be a loaded race in the NL alongside guys like Juan Soto, James Wood, Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker.

If Crow-Armstrong was in the AL, or if there was not a player like Ohtani who has unprecedented two-way production in the NL, he would be a runaway MVP favorite. But there is definitely a path.

In the NBA, writers have often been accused of “voter fatigue,” which is why LeBron James only has four MVPs throughout his 23-year career. That has not really been an issue in the BBWAA, but maybe that could lead to some voters choosing Crow-Armstrong over an injury-plagued pitching and weaker-than-usual offensive season from Ohtani.

Crow-Armstrong could also go on a tear. If he ends up with 40 homers and 40 steals, that statistical accomplishment would be difficult to ignore, just like Ohtani’s 50-50 season was while he was exclusively DHing in 2024.

Ohtani will probably pitch again in the regular season. Even if he stays on the shelf on that side of the ball, he has still probably done enough to lock up the MVP if he keeps hitting at this level. But, for the first time since 2022, there is a real chance for a non-Ohtani MVP.

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

Can the Yankees get back on track against the Dodgers in a 2024 World Series rematch? There’s an especially fun pitching matchup on Sunday between Cam Schlittler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Skubal trade watch is officially on. He’s scheduled to start on Saturday against the Angels.

Junior Caminero left the All-Star game after being hit on the hand. X-Rays were negative, but let’s see if, or how much he plays against the Red Sox.

The A’s are reportedly promoting their No. 7 prospect, third baseman Tommy White. College Baseball fans will remember his time at LSU, where he earned the nickname “Tommy Tanks.”

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

MLB cracking down on technology/AI usage in the dugout

Trying to fix the All-Star game

Biggest second-half storylines

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

These are 10 of the craziest nights in baseball history. (25 mins)

Every year we have some first time All-Stars, and this year, I thought we should highlight two pitchers that deserve a little more attention. Let's get into it. (15 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about which teams in the AL Wild Card race are “contenders” or “pretenders.”

My writer, Henry Neiman, took stock of where the Mariners stand at the All-Star break.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Adjusted Earned Run Average (ERA+)

ERA+ takes a player’s ERA and normalizes it across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks and opponents. It then adjusts, so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.

For example, Mariano Rivera’s 2.21 career ERA was 105 percent better than the MLB average during the time he pitched (including adjustments for park and league). That gives him a 205 career ERA+ (the best all-time).

The formula: League ERA, adjusted for park factors x 100 / ERA.

ERA is the most universally accepted tool for measuring the performance of a pitcher. But ERA+ attempts to level the playing field for all pitchers by adjusting for the impact their home ballpark had on their performance. (via MLB.com)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

I’m not a superstitious man (usually), but maybe if I write back-to-back negative articles then the Mariners will start playing better. At the break, there will be a lot of conversation about the trade deadline and whether any other Mariners should have made the All-Star team. There are many discussion points while every Mariners fan scrambles to find what could fix this poor baseball team. So allow me to take this time while we have a few days off from Mariners baseball to give my two cents on every point of contention in the Mariners fanbase right now.

All-Stars:

Logan Gilbert was robbed at gunpoint. He has had a better season than Michael Wacha in every possible way, with a better ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, walk rate, walk %, WAR, FIP, WHIP, and record. And it’s not like the Royals needed to have Wacha make it to be their only All-Star, they have Bobby Witt Jr. There is no reason for Logan Gilbert to not be an All-Star. Grr.

Julio Rodriguez had a decent case also, but his injury and a pretty stacked category makes this not an egregious snub. It’s more important for Julio to focus on shifting into second half Julio, which the team is in desperate need of.

Trade Deadline:

The Mariners need a right-handed bat and a bullpen arm. If they have to trade a starter to get them, that’s ok. Luis Castillo feels like the clear name on the chopping block, but his larger contract and regression this year would make him a less desirable trade candidate than the other shiny names in the rotation.

For a bullpen arm I want Garrett Whitlock from Boston. The Red Sox aren’t having as bad a time as they were earlier in the year, but I think that they can be convinced to sell still. Chapman is off the table because of the Mariners’ zero-tolerance policy on domestic violence, which is great. Whitlock has been on fire recently, and his high-leverage arm is a need, at least to get rid of the Michael Rucker experiment. There has been a lot of stress in the Mariners bullpen, and a rock-solid arm like Whitlock can keep it all together.

Bats are harder, as there are not many options for a good right-handed hitter, preferably an outfielder. The top option on the market right now looks like Taylor Ward, who is not having the massive season he did last year, but maybe just needs out of Baltimore. Victor Robles, no matter how much I like him, doesn’t strike me as the answer to the offensive struggles, and Ward’s power can give the Mariners a chance against lefties. Wilson Contreras is another name I’ve heard floated around, and while his bat has been great this season, a 1B/DH is not what the team needs right now to compete with Josh Naylor and Dom Canzone. Dan Wilson has enough on his plate without having to deal with splitting those guys’ ABs. Additionally, Brendan Donovan is probably coming back at some point, so the infield is going to be crowded enough as it is.

The Rest of the Season:

The last two times that the Mariners made the playoffs, it came with a massive win streak. In 2022, it was 14 wins in a row leading up to the All-Star break. Last year, it was 10 wins in a row and 17 of 18 in September to close out the division. I don’t want to be a downer, but if the only way for the modern Mariners to make the playoffs is to catch fire and have one of the best months in franchise history, my confidence is wavering. This is not a Mariners team that has shown the resilience or the clutch factor of either the 2022 or the 2025 team. The 2022 team had 40 comeback wins, the 2025 team had 43. This season’s team has 16 so far, on pace for around 30. Not to mention this season has a distinct lack of a 60 HR season from Cal Raleigh. I don’t know if anyone noticed that.

There is good news, however. The AL West sucks. Like really sucks. The Rangers currently lead the division at a commanding record of 49-47, with the Mariners only 1.5 games back. 3.5 months of mediocre baseball has left the Mariners in a prime position to secure a playoff spot if they can only start playing maybe 20-25% better baseball.

If the always good rotation holds on and Cal Raleigh plays anywhere near the level that everyone knows he can, the Mariners can make the playoffs for the third time in five years (and in my life). But don’t hold your breath for a win streak like last time.

Go M’s,

Henry “Distracted by the World Cup” Neiman

The Tampa Bay Rays (56-38) are first in the AL East. The Chicago White Sox (50-45) and Cleveland Guardians (51-46) are effectively tied for first in the AL Central. The Texas Rangers (49-47) are first in the AL West.

The New York Yankees (54-42) are 6 ½ games up in the first Wild Card Spot, followed by the Guardians, who are 3 games up in the second.

After that is where things get really interesting. The Seattle Mariners (48-49) and Minnesota Twins (48-49) are tied for the third spot. The Boston Red Sox (46-48) are ½ games back. The Houston Astros (47-51) are 1 ½ back. The Baltimore Orioles (46-51) are 2 back. The Toronto Blue Jays (45-51) are 2 ½ back. The Detroit Tigers (44-52) are 3 ½ back.

So basically, there are seven teams vying for the third and final AL Wild Card. Chaos. Who should buy at the trade deadline. Who should sell? Who has a legitimate chance to make some noise in the postseason if they make it? Who would get swept in the Wild Card round?

Let’s go down the list and figure out which teams are contenders or pretenders.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are arguably the most talented of the group of teams fighting for the last spot in the postseason on the AL side. But their biggest star, Cal Raleigh, has completely disappeared. Last season, Raleigh hit 61 home runs, becoming the first catcher in MLB history to reach the 60 homer milestone. The Big Dumper controversially finished second in AL MVP voting behind Aaron Judge and picked up numerous other accolades. This year is a completely different story. Raleigh has just nine homers and is batting a paltry .169 while also having missed a month with a right oblique strain.

Outside of Raleigh, Randy Arozarena is hitting and getting on base at a career-high clip, Julio Rodriguez is still one of baseball’s elite center fielders, Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have been extremely productive and rookie second baseman Cole Young has been a very pleasant surprise.

But as usual, the Mariners’ starting pitching depth is the biggest reason why they have the chance to go far in October. Even with Luis Castillo posting a 4.93 ERA, the M’s have five other legitimate frontline starters, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller, that they can trot out.

If the rotation holds up and Raleigh finally begins to hit anywhere close to the level he did last season, watch out.

Verdict: Contender

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are one of the more surprising teams in the AL postseason picture. Despite a fire sale last trade deadline that saw them move off of Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Ty France, Griffin Jax, Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader and Willi Castro, among others, Minnesota has been very competitive this season.

Byron Buxton, who it seems is finally able stay consistently healthy and once again has no plans on waiving his often-discussed no-trade clause, has been one of the best all-around players in baseball. Outside of Buxton, a balanced offensive attack helped the Twins score the most 471 runs, the most in the AL and sixth in MLB.

While the Twins are a fun story, they just do not have enough pitching outside of Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley to be a true threat. The emergence of Yoendrys Gómez as a viable closing option has been huge, but the rest of the bullpen is just not established enough. If they are able to add more pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, at the deadline, then this could be a different story. One thing they could do is try and pull off a Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer “baseball trade” with Ryan Jeffers, who has been hurt but is a solid offensive catcher, for an arm.

Without pitching reinforcements, it is difficult to see the Twins as much more than a team taking advantage of a weak AL.

Verdict: Pretender

Boston Red Sox

The All-Star break could not have come at a worse time for the Red Sox, who were riding a nine-game winning streak into the pause and have catapulted themselves back into relevancy.

The Red Sox have started winning on the backs of their elite starting pitching. Even with ace Garrett Crochet on the shelf with shoulder/lat injuries, the rotation led by veterans Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray and youngsters Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and unlikely hero Jake Bennet has carried a lackluster offense that is tied for second-to-last in runs.

The big question for the Red Sox is if their recent streak is indicative of the overall quality of the team, and if it is enough for embattled chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to decide to try and buy at the trade deadline. If they add another right-handed bat and guys like Crochet and Roman Anthony get healthy, Boston could suddenly be one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

As things currently stand though, the way the Red Sox are winning close games with their pitching shouldering the load is just not sustainable.

Verdict: Pretender

Houston Astros

The Astros looked dead in the water. They had a 20-31 record on May 20. But despite dealing with injuries to Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier and Carlos Correa, they have rallied to a 27-20 record since then and are suddenly back in the Wild Card and AL West race.

Yordan Alvarez, a triple crown candidate, is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory and is looking like an MVP candidate despite spending the majority of the year at DH so far. 35-year-old Christian Walker is also continuing to produce at a high level.

The biggest reason why the Astros should feel optimistic about the rest of the season is that their rotation looks like it will finally be getting healthy. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are both projected to rejoin the rotation soon after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last season. If Houston is able to solidify left field and bolster the bullpen at the deadline, this could be the best Astros team since 2023 when they lost in seven games in the ALCS to the eventual World Series winning Rangers.

Altuve and Correa, the holdovers from the Astros’ World Series core, are getting older, but they should never be counted out if they are able to find a way to make it to October.

Verdict: Contender

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are fascinating. In 2023, they won 101 games and had a young core that almost every other organization envied. Now, most of those prospects have matured and not reached the potential many thought they had when they were coming up. The result is an Orioles team that is struggling to compete in a weaker-than-expected AL East despite finally spending some money this past offseason.

Pete Alonso, with 21 homers and 65 RBI, is hitting like Pete Alonso. Samuel Basallo has exceeded expectations in his first full season. While his other offensive metrics may be down, Gunnar Henderson is still a legitimate power threat with 17 homers. Blaze Alexander has also come out of nowhere to hit .312.

But, as has often been the case with the Orioles, the starting pitching just is not there. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been solid, but outside of that there has not been much consistency.

Despite technically being in the race, the Orioles look like a prime candidate to take advantage of the sellers market and try and move some of their expiring contracts like Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers.

Verdict: Pretender

Toronto Blue Jays

Expectations were high for the Blue Jays after they took the Los Angeles Dodgers to the brink in last year’s World Series and then continued to add to their already talented roster, signing Dylan Cease for seven years, $210 million, Kazuma Okamoto for four years, $60 million, Tyler Rogers for three years, $37 million and Cody Ponce for three years, $30 million. Despite losing Bo Bichette, the general consensus was that the Blue Jays got better.

That has not been the case so far. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has dealt with lingering back issues and has looked like a shell of himself. In addition to Guerrero’s struggles, The rest of the offense outside of Okamoto, who has 22 homers, and Ernie Clement, who was leading vote-getter for the AL All-Star team, has been a significant problem as well. The Blue Jays are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored in baseball.

If the lineup can get going, there is a lot to like in Toronto. Cease is elite. Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage are no strangers to the postseason after last year. Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers might be the best bullpen duo in baseball.

If Guerrero returns to form and the Blue Jays are able to upgrade the rotation at the trade deadline, there is no reason this team should not be able to make up ground and earn a Wild Card bid. If they end up with the third spot, they would be a nightmare opponent for the worst division winner.

Verdict: Contender

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have an incredibly difficult decision to make in the coming weeks ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Will they trade Tarik Skubal, who is in the final year of his contract and is expected to become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history this offseason?

The decision to trade Skubal became much more difficult following a stretch before the All-Star break that saw the Tigers win nine out of 10 before losing two in a row against Philadelphia Phillies aces Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler.

Outside of the potential Skubal trade looming over Detroit, there is reason to believe in this team. Casey Mize has been a revelation, Dillon Dingler has turned into one of the game’s best offensive catchers and Riley Greene is still an elite hitter, albeit with more bat-to-ball and a bit less power. If Skubal stays and the Tigers are able to add to their bullpen, then this team has the chance to make some noise. But that is a lot to ask for a group that was looking dead in the water in late June.

Verdict: Pretender

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

Day 1 of the MLB Draft is on Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Grady Emerson, a shortstop out of Fort Worth Christian High School in Texas and UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowski look like a toss-up at No. 1.

Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes are expected to face off on Sunday at 12:15 p.m. ET on Peacock.

The latest edition of the Lone Star Series between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will be a crucial one in the AL West.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Rates & Barrells

Looking back at Justin Verlander’s career

Changes to the strike zone

Do Any Stats Reveal Hitters Sitting on Pitches?

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

The All-Star teams are set, Eury Perez could have made history, and the Yankees can’t stop scoring less than their opponents. Let's talk about it... (19 mins)

I didn’t want to talk about this, but the signs are getting pretty clear. Donald Trump likes to involve himself in sports. So, will he insert himself into the MLB labor negotiations? I have a theory. Let's chat about it... (11 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about how the Texas Rangers are flying under the radar this season.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Induced Vertical Break (IVB)

Induced Vertical Break, or IVB, is the amount of movement a pitcher generates from how he spins the baseball.

IVB removes the effects of gravity, and reports only the amount of “rise” or “drop” the pitcher creates himself based on how he releases the pitch and manipulates the ball.

This differs from the total vertical movement of a pitch, which is simply the amount the baseball drops from the pitcher’s hand to the plate, including the amount that is due to gravity. Statcast measures both the overall vertical movement and the induced vertical break for every pitch.

Induced vertical break is reported as either a positive or a negative number. Positive IVB indicates that a pitch has induced “rising” movement -- in other words, it drops less than a pitch would if thrown at the same velocity but without spin. Negative IVB indicates that a pitch has induced “drop” -- in other words, it drops more than a pitch would if thrown at the same velocity but without spin. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

After beating the Detroit Tigers 10-4 on Thursday, the Texas Rangers have won seven of their last eight games to propel themselves to a tie atop the American League West with the Seattle Mariners with a 45-43 record.

The Rangers have flown under the radar all season. They did not make any splashy offseason free agency signings, instead executing some more savvy, under-the-radar trades like when they acquired MacKenzie Gore from the Washington Nationals for a handful of prospects and Brandon Nimmo from the New York Mets for Marcus Semien in a rare “baseball trade” featuring two established Major League players.

The only member of the Rangers who is having a bonafide All-Star-caliber season is closer Jacob Latz. The 30-year-old Latz burst onto the scene this year and established himself early as the Rangers’ best ninth inning option, recording 18 saves and a 1.71 ERA. Jacob deGrom, who just turned 30, is leading the AL with a 10.8 SO/9 and has shown flashes of his old self, but is no longer a true ace. Similarly, 36-year-old Nathan Eovaldi is still a productive player, but is not looking like the frontline starter he was for the first three years of his Rangers career.

Their most expensive and high-profile position player, Corey Seager, is on pace for career-lows all across the board. Seager was also just placed on the 10-day injured list because of lower back inflammation, his third trip to the IL this season. One of those was also because of lower back inflammation, the other was because of a concussion.

The Ranges are 21st in runs scored, 16th in total bases and 15th in OPS. On the pitching side, they are 10th in team ERA. Their run differential is almost exactly even -2. All pretty middle-of-the-road numbers.

Just looking around their division, they do not have the flashiness of the Mariners, who boast one of MLB’s deepest starting rotations and superstars in Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. The Houston Astros have Yordan Alvarez, who many believe to be the frontrunner for AL MVP (including our own Trevor May). The Athletics have a prolific offense and some of baseball’s most promising young stars. The Los Angeles Angels, while their record does not show it, are still a fun team to watch because of Mike Trout’s late-career resurgence

But still, the Rangers are in first place and are in line to make it back to the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 2023.

Just like now, that 2023 Rangers team was overlooked all year, and was picked by few to make noise in the postseason. As the 2nd AL Wild Card team, the Rangers swept their way past the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round and the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS before beating the Astros in a tense seven-game series in the ALCS and the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games in the World Series.

That team had a bit more firepower though. Seager finished second in AL MVP voting. Semien finished third. Adolis Garcia hit 39 home runs. Josh Jung finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Seager, Semien, Garcia, Jung, Eovaldi and Jonah Heim were all named All-Stars.

The Rangers were very active during the trade deadline in 2023, adding veterans Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Austin Hedges to try and push for the postseason. This year, they could do the same. Second base is a clear area of need, with six different players spending time at Semien’s former position. They could also look for an upgrade in the outfield and to add more pitching depth, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen.

One potential roadblock–the Rangers have a very weak farm system. Ranked 25th at the beginning of the season by MLB Pipeline, the Rangers have just two top-100 prospects, 20-year-old infield prospect Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 10) and 21-year-old RHP prospect Caden Scarborough (MLB No. 66).

With the AL as weak as it is, even if the Rangers do not end up winning their division, they should still be right in the thick of the Wild Card race. People counted them out in 2023. The team looks a bit different now, but the Rangers might just have it in them to pull off another surprise run in October.

We have a new podcast schedule! I will be releasing episodes most Fridays and Mondays. The next episode will be out on Monday, where I will be joined my executive producer David Korn to break down the weekend’s action and react to the All-Star rosters.

Mayday! is no longer live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

• The American League and National League All-Star rosters will be announced on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

• Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to start tonight against Michael King and the Padres. Dave Roberts is also planning on sticking with Dalton Rushing behind the plate, who got crossed up with Ohtani during his last start and had other miscommunications.

• The Yankees have lost seven straight. They’ll turn to Gerrit Cole tonight against the Twins to try and end their losing streak.

• The Cubs are crushing the ball and are hottest team in baseball. They’ve won nine of their last 10 and are looking to keep it up their rivals, the Cardinals, this weekend.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Mayday! the Podcast

My biggest surprises and disappointments from the first half

Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Harrison and JJ Bleday impressing

Top free agents, Padres offense and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander struggling

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

Brent Rooker out for the season

Breaking down Tatsuya Imai and Jake Bennett

How pitcher succeed without top velocity

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

The players were asked which organizations were the worst, and best, and they did not disappoint. Let’s jump right into it! (31 mins)

These are 10 trades that I know, for a fact, will happen no matter what. I guarantee it. So, let's go predict the future... (18 mins)

We're back at the half way point of the season, so here are my biggest surprises & disappointments of the season so far. Let's get into it... (21 mins)

The Red Sox sweep the Yankees at home. The Phillies are right behind the Braves. The Rays retake first place. And… the Mets fire their manager. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?! Lets get into it... (19 mins)

📝READ📝

My writer, Henry Neiman, shared some stats about how underwhelming this Mariners season has been.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Attack Angle

Attack angle measures the vertical direction that the sweet spot of the bat is traveling at the moment it hits the baseball.

Statcast’s attack angle metric is reported at the point of contact specifically (or the point where the bat and ball cross paths, in the case of a swing-and-miss). It measures the angle the bat is moving relative to the ground.

A higher attack angle, assuming the bat makes square contact with the baseball, is more likely to result in a fly ball. A lower or negative attack angle would be more likely to produce a ground ball.

The MLB average attack angle is about 10°. On a seasonal level, Major League hitters will range from average attack angles of around 0° to 20°.

• Hitters with high attack angles include Max Muncy (18° in 2024), Eugenio Suárez (18°), Cal Raleigh (17°) and Jose Altuve (16°).

• Hitters with low attack angles include Brice Turang (1° in 2024) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3°), Steven Kwan (4°) and Jarren Duran (4°).

The ideal attack angle range for a hitter is from 5° to 20°. That is the range at which swings produce the most value for the batter. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

The good news is they finally broke their 13-game streak of scoring 3 or fewer runs, the longest such streak in the American League since 1972. The bad news? They lost anyway.

This is a Mariners team that in years past has had rough stretches followed by stretches of brilliance, but with enough consistency to keep fans happy and hopeful. This season is different, and let’s go through the numbers to understand what is so infuriating about this team right now.

42-43: Mariners record so far. The team has slipped back under .500 and lost the division lead.

2: Times that the Mariners have won back-to-back series this year. Nearly every series win is immediately followed by a series loss.

0: Times I have written back-to-back positive articles this season. This is a personal strain on me.

1-5: Mariners record in games that I personally attended. Help me out a little here, guys. One of those losses was a first date.

-0.5: Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor’s combined WAR this season. Two of the big reasons for last season’s success are complete non-factors.

12: “It’s over” declarations from my Mariners fans group chat.

25: Games that Brendan Donovan, the primary offseason pickup for the Mariners, has played in so far.

11-14: Record in one run games. It’s clear that the Mariners can win close games, but they don’t. This isn’t a bad enough stat to be dooming, it’s just bad enough to be annoying. It sums up a lot of the season: Good enough to not be out of it, but not good enough to inspire any confidence.

The Mariners are not a bad baseball team. If they were, they would have a worse record than one game under .500. But clearly they are not a good baseball team right now either. It feels like back in the mid-2010’s, when the team had stars and flashy moments and cool wins, and always came up just short. Except this time there aren’t very many flashy moments. I’m not complaining that the Mariners are bad, I’m complaining that they are no fun at all to watch. Fans are calling for Dan Wilson’s job, and maybe a little shakeup isn’t the worst idea. I won’t lie and say I’ve been very inspired by his managerial decisions.

Is a manager change going to fix everything? Of course not. It rarely does. If you aren’t convinced, there’s a great video that we just made on the subject. But right now there is no indication that things are turning around for the Mariners. They can’t go on like this.

Go M’s,

Henry “Wild Card hopeful” Neiman

We have a new podcast schedule! I will be releasing episodes every Friday and Monday. On Friday, I will be joined by my executive producer, David Korn, and talk about some of my favorite stories across baseball. On Monday, I will react to all of the weekend’s action. Today’s episode will be out this afternoon!

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND

• The Miami Marlins are 1 1/2 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the third NL Wild Card spot and begin a three-game set against each other TONIGHT. Max Meyer, who is 8-0 with a 2.80 ERA, starts for the Marlins in the first game.

• Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff are scheduled to start for the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. Good luck to the Cubs hitters.

NEW STUFF

🎧 LISTEN 🎧

Mayday! the Podcast

New proposed changes to the MLB Draft

What this means for college baseball

Why this could be bad for the majority of players

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

What’s gone wrong with the Mets

Diamondbacks’ pitching issues

Breaking down LOB%

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

I joined the Bend Elks along with Will and Clint to find out how hard it really is to be a two way player. Spoiler, I found out. Big time. (14 mins)

Meet Henry. Henry is a writer. Henry hasn't thrown a baseball in over a decade. Henry wants to throw hard. I will do my best to help him out... but theres a catch. We only have a day to do it. Let's see how this goes... (17 mins)

Major League Baseball continued their proposal roll out last week by proposing a MASSIVE overhaul of the Amateur Draft. Included in the proposal was an International draft as well. After going through the proposal and doing some research... I have thoughts. Let’s jump into it and break them down, point by point… (24 mins)

Rafael Devers isn't happy (again), The Phillies vets unload, and Freddy Peralta is having his Mets season.... Let's jump in! (15 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about Kyle Schwarber’s Hall of Fame case after his huge weekend.

My writer, Henry Neiman, broke down the Mariners’ first half of the season.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Sweet Spot

Colloquially, a player who hits the ball solidly is said to have gotten the “sweet spot” of the bat on the ball. The sweet spot classification quantifies that as a batted-ball event with a launch angle ranging from 8 to 32 degrees.

A player’s sweet spot percentage -- or how often he produces a batted-ball event in the launch angle sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees -- is presented on Statcast leaderboards under LA SwSp%.

Sweet spot percentage can be used in concert with hard-hit rate -- the percentage of a player’s batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. For a batted-ball classification that takes into account both launch angle and exit velocity, check out barrels. (via MLB)

More Shows to Check Out

Foul Territory: Live on YouTube - Every day at 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT

Sunday Sliders with Trevor and Dani Wexelman on MLB Network Radio, SiriusXM channel 89 and on the SiriusXM app - Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Kyle Schwarber made history last weekend. While his teammate Bryce Harper hit for the cycle during the Philadelphia Phillies’ 15-3 win over the New York Mets on Saturday, Schwarber hit three home runs. The duo became just the second pair of teammates in Major League history to hit at least three home runs and hit for the cycle on the same day since Lou Gehrig (four home runs) and Tony Lazzeri (cycle) achieved the rare feat for the New York Yankees on June 3, 1932.

Schwarber followed it up with an encore performance on Sunday, slugging his Major League-leading 29th home run.

On Monday’s edition of MLB Now on MLB Network, Steve Phillips, Ron Darling and Jon Heyman debated Schwarber’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

Baseball Reference has a great tool that tries to measure players’ Hall of Fame chances called the “Hall of Fame Monitor.” Created by revolutionary statistician Bill James, the HOF Monitor assigns points to various statistical achievements and career milestones. For example, a player gets 2.5 points for every season with a batting average over .300, 10 points for a 50 HR season, 40 points for 3,000 career hits, etc. A player with a score of 100 means they have a “good possibility” of making the Hall of Fame and 130 is a “virtual cinch.”

Schwarber is currently at a 77, sandwiched among eligible non-HOFers between Buster Posey, who has a 79, and J.D. Martinez, who has a 75. That puts him significantly below James’ 100 benchmark with a long way to go before looking like he has a chance to be enshrined.

But Schwarber is a unique case. He had an injury-plagued start to his career as a catcher and corner outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, helping them break 107-year World Series drought in 2016, but was nowhere near the kind of prolific power hitter he has turned into since joining the Philadelphia Phillies. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after the COVID-shortened 2020 season that saw Schwarber hit .188.

After that, he signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and was traded to the Boston Red Sox for the second half of the 2021 season. That offseason, he signed a four-year, $79 million contract with the Phillies which turned out to be one of the biggest bargains in baseball. This past offseason, Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies on a five-year, $150 million deal.

During his time with the Phillies, Schwarber has arguably been the most consistent home run hitter in the league. He had 46 homers in 2022, 47 in 2023, 38 in 2024, 56 in 2025 and is up to 29 at the midway point this season. He led the NL in 2022 and 2025 and is leading all of baseball so far this year. His 216 homers since 2022 are second-most in MLB only behind Aaron Judge.

Not only has Schwarber absolutely crushed the ball since joining the Phillies, but he has not missed any meaningful time with injuries. He has missed just 26 total games dating back to the start of the 2022 season.

Here are Schwarber’s career totals:

• 369 home runs

• 1,122 hits

• 836 RBI

• .232 AVG

• .347 OBP

• .506 SLG

• .853 OPS

Schwarber turned 33 in March. But based on his durability and how his power has seemed to increase as he has gotten older, that ever-important 500 home run milestone is well within reach. Based on historical precedent, the only thing that has ever kept someone with 500 home runs out of the Hall of Fame are serious steroid allegations, as is the case with Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both have over 500 home runs, and are expected to be first-ballot Hall of Fame selections once they are eligible.

Schwarber is currently on pace to hit 58 home runs this season. If that happens, he would end 2026 with 398 home runs. Schwarber has four more years left on his contract. That means he would need to average 25 ½ home runs each year until the end of his deal to hit 500 before he reaches free agency again.

For most players Schwarber’s age, that may be a tough task. But he has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down, and as a designated hitter, has seemed to be able to limit the wear-and-tear on his body that most players who field a position have at this point in their careers.

Schwarber’s status as a designated hitter, which has allowed him to hit at this level for such a sustained period of time, may end up being his biggest roadblock to being enshrined in Cooperstown. DHs have historically had a difficult time getting elected. The only members of the Hall of Fame who played a majority of their games at DH are Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines and David Ortiz. While Schwarber has still played the majority of his games in the outfield, by the time his career is over, he will almost certainly be known as a full-time DH.

One characteristic that many Hall of Fame voters look to when they fill out their ballots is if a player was one of the best at their position for a period of time. Unfortunately for Schwarber, he plays in the same era as Shohei Ohtani. Because of that, Ohtani has beat out Schwarber each of the last two seasons for the NL’s Silver Slugger at DH. Ohtani is not going away any time soon, and will likely continue to beat out Schwarber for All-Star starter nods and Silver Sluggers at DH in the NL.

Just a few years ago, it would have been blasphemous to call Schwarber a future Hall of Famer. That has changed. His consistency, durability and age-defying power have put him squarely in the conversation to getting a plaque on the wall in Cooperstown.

The Mariners are in first place in the AL West at 41-39, with lagging injuries, slow starts, and a lack of form from some of last season’s most consistent players. Let’s check in and see where things stand.

Each part of the Mariners’ roster has had a significant issue this season in some way or another and they have managed to survive it. The lineup had a lack of Cal Raleigh, who had a really slow start and then the first IL stint of his career. Additionally, the primary offseason addition of Brendan Donovan can’t stay on the field. A litany of other injuries to JP Crawford, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles have allowed for a merry-go-round of replacements in the form of Connor Joe, Weston Wilson, Patrick Wisdom, Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas, and Jhonny Perada. Some of these guys have had good moments, but you can’t say that a roster with this many names who weren’t on the Opening Day lineup is quite the vision that the team was hoping for.

The gold star of the callups is obviously Colt Emerson, who so far has looked comfortable settling into everyday third base. The power has translated to the big leagues with 6 home runs in under 100 ABs, and the defense looks lockdown. Who knows what will happen when Donovan returns in a few weeks.

LINEUP GRADE: B

The starting rotation has been great overall, with a few big wrinkles. A lot of scrutiny has been put onto the early struggles of Luis Castillo, and with the added confusion of the six-man piggyback system, it just doesn’t feel comfortable. It almost feels like an inevitability that one of the starters will get dealt, and there’s no real good option to lose any of them. But with Kade Anderson waiting in the wings a move has to be made. Most of the tension is caused by too much talent, making this really hard to grade. The pitching has been good, but something is going to change, and not knowing what will change hurts.

ROTATION GRADE: B+

The bullpen has been a huge headache. Injuries galore to Gabe Spier, Carlos Vargas, Cooper Criswell, and Matt Brash twice. Andres Munoz losing all sense of composure out of nowhere. Huge pressure put onto Jose Ferrer and Eduard Bazardo while everyone else crumbles around them. And still after all that, a bullpen ERA of 3.39 makes for one of the best in the league. Please make it make sense. Another arm will be needed to shore up the pen at the trade deadline(or maybe just move Luis Castillo there), because they can’t afford to lose anyone else.

BULLPEN GRADE: A- (somehow)

The Mariners are an amazingly frustrating team this season, with more ups and downs than my little cousin at the trampoline park. This team has no sense of consistency, with any player capable of going on a crazy run of completely falling off out of nowhere. It makes sense that the Mariners’ record is around .500, not because they are mediocre, but they are either so good or so bad that it cancels out. A team like this is very lucky to be leading the division, as the AL West descends further into oblivion. The Mariners cannot continue to rely on the collapse of all of their competition. They are in a decent place, but it’s time to get serious. Second half Julio is upon us now, and Cal Raleigh is healthy and here to prove something again. Munoz seems to be finding his form again (he looked great yesterday at least), and no outward complaining has come from the rotation since they changed the piggyback to include everyone. So maybe things are looking up, as long as nobody else gets hurt. Knock on wood.

Also, All-Star voting closes today, and we might get a few guys in there this year! That is, if anyone can get past the unyielding wall of Blue Jays fans voting for their guys with .500 OPS. Not that I’m mad or anything. But get out there and vote, it’s your civic duty!

Go M’s,

Henry “The Next Bryan Woo” Neiman