For years, the Astros have been the best team in baseball and the worst thing to ever happen to the Mariners. From 2015-2022, the Mariners had a 49-97 record against the Astros, culminating in the infamous 2022 ALDS sweep. The Astros were a dynasty, the most consistent powerhouse in baseball, and they enjoyed rubbing it in Mariner fans’ faces every single chance they could. There was nothing the Mariners could do to stop it.

But all that is gone. From 2023-now, the Mariners have flipped the script and gone 31-15 against the Astros, including a recently-snapped nine game winning streak. While the Astros have fallen from their perch as the team to beat in the league (thank god), the Mariners have finally been able to get some revenge on their most hated rival.

So what happened? How did the Mariners finally overcome the Astros? It’s not just one switch that got flipped.

The Hitting Core: For a few years leading up to 2022, the Astros slowly began to lose a few pieces of their core, but not fast enough to make a difference at first. George Springer left to the Blue Jays in 2021, and Carlos Correa departed for the Twins the year after. Unfortunately the lineup of rookie Jeramy Pena, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez was still horrifying enough to be great. But with Bregman and Tucker departing a few years later, the Astros stars continue to wink out one by one.

The Ace: Justin Verlander was the bane of the Mariners’ existence from 2017-2022, winning 2 Cy Young awards and leading the Astros pitching staff to two championships. In that time, Verlander went 11-2 against the Mariners with a 2.88 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 17 games. I remember whenever I watched the Mariners play against Verlander it felt like a guaranteed loss. It was such a blow to morale to lose to him over and over again. When Verlander went to the Mets in the 2022 offseason, it felt like a great weight was lifted off the shoulders of Mariners fans everywhere. No longer did we have to worry about Justin Verlander in our division.

The Aura: The lack of scare factor has been the downfall of the Astros since 2023. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have been good for them, but neither of them have quite the presence that Verlander did. Verlander was an unbreakable wall, and you always knew that Framber would break when bent. Yordan Alvarez is the scariest man in baseball when healthy, but a few injury ridden years have hurt his stock (although he’s off to a terrifying start this year). The Astros aren’t even the most hated team in the league anymore, as the recent run of dominance from the Dodgers seems to have taken that crown. It’s their worst nightmare: people don’t care about them like they used to.

Obviously the Mariners have improved over the last few years, it’s a night and day difference. But the Astros that have dominated a near decade of baseball are finally, Finally coming back down to Earth. Hou love to Sea it.

Go M’s,

Henry “Hoping to be Above .500 soon” Neiman

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There’s a name that you've likely heard time and time again if you follow Major League Baseball even a little bit: Driveline, a baseball facility in Washington state that took some radical ideas about player development and turned them into some of the most highly sought philosophies by numerous professional organizations. So who are they, what do they do, and why do so many baseball lifers role their eyes when their name is mentioned? Let me explain... (19 mins)

The worst MLB teams aren't the worst MLB teams right now. What changed? Let me explain... (14 mins)

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My producer, David Korn, previewed the Trade Deadline and wrote up four bold mock trades.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Ballpark Factor

Ballpark factor, at its most basic, takes the runs scored by Team X (and its competitors) in Team X’s home ballpark and divides the figure by the runs scored by Team X and its competitors in Team X’s road contests. Often times, that number will be ever-so-slightly adjusted if a team doesn’t play the same opponents at home as on the road.

For example: In 2018, 849 runs were scored at Coors Field, and 676 runs were scored in Rockies games away from Coors Field. Coors Field had a park factor of 1.271, when looking at runs scored.

Park factor is a great way of determining the extent to which a stadium favors hitters or pitchers. It isn’t affected by the teams or players involved, because those teams and players are also playing games in other stadiums. It simply compares how easy it is to score, from one ballpark to another. (via MLB)

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Looking at the division races, the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are tied for last place in the AL Central with 19-24 records, but are all just four games back of the first-place Cleveland Guardians. In the AL West, the Texas Rangers (21-22) are 1 ½ games back and the Seattle Mariners (21-23) are two games back of the first-place Athletics. Every team in the NL Central is above .500.

The Boston Red Sox, who are in last place in the AL East with a 18-24 record, are still just 2 1/2 games back of the third Wild Card spot.

The most significant consequence of this parity–absolute chaos at the trade deadline. Will teams in the American League decide to go all-in even if they are hovering around .500 because of the weaker field? Will one of the disappointing teams with a high payroll, like the Red Sox, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies or San Francisco Giants sell?

It is still early, but here are four bold moves that teams could make ahead of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline on Aug. 3 at 6:00 p.m. ET.

1. New York Yankees receive: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels receive: LHP Ryan Weathers, OF Spencer Jones (Yankees No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline)

With Mike Trout returning to near-MVP form, now makes the most sense for a struggling Los Angeles Angels team to finally cut bait from their superstar and sell high while he is still healthy and performing. Trout has 11 home runs, a .936 OPS, a 160 wRC+ and is playing solid defense in center field. But, in an all-too-familiar situation, the Angels are in last place in a weak AL West with a 16-28 record and are still not able to string together wins even with a healthy Trout.

The Yankees could be a perfect trade partner for Trout. Center field is one of the few positions that New York could look to upgrade, with Trent Grisham hitting under .200 and regressing back to how he performed at the plate the last few seasons. The Angels have struggled to produce young starting pitchers, and with Carlos Rodon back in the rotation and Gerrit Cole on the way, the Yankees suddenly have a surplus of starting arms.

Ryan Weathers has been a revelation for the Yankees since they traded for him from the Miami Marlins this past offseason. Trading him would hurt, but with a wide-open American League and an aging core, the Yankees should be going all-in on this season. Throwing the hulking 6’7” Jones, one of the Yankees’ top prospects, in, should be enough to get Trout to the Bronx and finally give the all-time great a chance to finally compete for a championship.

2. Seattle Mariners receive: SS CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals receive: 2B Cole Young, RHP Ryan Sloan (MLB No. 22, Mariners No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline)

With Eli Willits, who was recently named the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline and was the first overall pick in last year’s draft, getting off to a great start to his pro career, the Nationals can afford to move on from CJ Abrams. Abrams is infamously streaky and is a sub-par defender at shortstop, and trading him while he still has team control before he is expected to hit free agency after the 2028 season would allow the Nationals to continue to stock up their minor league system in this stage of their organizational rebuild under new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni.

The Seattle Mariners need more offense. Many projected them to run away with the AL West, and that just has not happened. The pitching has shown up for the most part, but the real issues have come on offense. The biggest shock has of course been Cal Raleigh, who was in the midst of an 0-38 streak at the plate before singling on Tuesday and is hitting .166. Raleigh should be able to eventually figure it out, but there are other holes throughout the Mariners’ lineup, especially in the middle of the infield.

The Mariners could capitalize on 22-year-old Cole Young’s unexpected start and move him, along with some other pitching prospects, to Washington for Abrams. Abrams is on his way to a career-year at the plate with nine home runs and a .921 OPS and would immediately slot in at the top of the Mariners’ lineup. Defensively, he could shift over to second base long-term to make room for the recently-extended Colt Emerson at shortstop, which may be a more natural fit for him anyway.

3. Athletics receive: RHP Clay Holmes, New York Mets receive: OF Henry Bote (A’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and 3B/1B Tommy White (A’s No. 9)

Clay Holmes has far out-performed the three-year, $38 million contract he signed with the New York Mets last offseason while transitioning to a starting role. This season especially, he has a 1.86 ERA through eight starts and is likely to exercise his opt-out this offseason if he keeps pitching this way. If Holmes signals to the Mets that he is going to opt-out, then the responsible thing for them to do would be to send him off and try and get some value back.

The Athletics are in first place in the AL West, and if they are still in that position in July, then they will need to trade for a starting pitcher if they want to make any sort of noise in the postseason. Half a season of Holmes should not be too expensive, and the A’s have enough prospect depth with Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker all signed long-term where they are able to make these sorts of win-now trades without mortgaging their future.

The Mets need more young position player depth to support their young starters, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, and the A’s can provide that. Rookie Carson Benge has had a disappointing start to his Major League career, Bo Bichette does not necessarily look like the answer for the Mets at third base and Marcus Semien is showing his age at second. This would be a rare move that the A’s would be makign for the present, and would give them some positive momentum ahead of their eventual move to Las Vegas.

4. San Diego Padres receive: LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers receive: RHP Bradgley Rodriguez, C Ethan Salas (MLB No. 52, Padres No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and LHP Kash Mayfeld (Padres No. 4)

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller is known for taking huge swings at the trade deadline. No one expected him to acquire guys like Juan Soto or Mason Miller. With the Padres currently in first place in the NL West, a ½ game above the Los Angeles Dodgers, why not go all-in on this season and get arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal, to round out their depleted starting rotation?

It could take less than initially expected to trade for Skubal because of the surgery he just underwent to remove a loose body from his left elbow, but because of the new procedure used by Dr. Neal ElAttrache that superagent Scott Boras coined the “Skubal Scope,” he could be back pitching for the Detroit Tigers by early June. Having any type of surgery complicates things, especially in a contract year, and it could give Preller just enough of a window to grab Skubal and load up for the postseason.

Even though the Padres, or any other team trading for Skubal would only be getting him for a few months, the price for him would still be steep. Catching prospect Ethan Salas has been lighting it up in the minor leagues and Bradgley Rodriguez is one of the best young relievers in baseball and could step into the closer role for the Tigers going forward. The reality for the Tigers is that if they do not believe they can sign Skubal, then they must trade him. With all of their other injuries and Framber Valdez’s struggles, it does not look like the Tigers are contenders this year, making the potential decision to trade Skubal more palatable.

• Check out Robert’s stats platform for yourself

• Watch my conversation with Rich Hill on the Red Sox’s firing of Alex Cora next if you liked this conversation.

Read more

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Welcome back to Trevor Throw Cheese, the series where I find the fun in pitching without the stakes of getting MLB hitters out. We have fun and maybe learn something new along the way! (13 mins)

The internet is a lot of things, one of those being the place to find all the weird baseball stories that you simply won't find on your local team's broadcast. This is internet says, let's jump in... (11 mins)

Anthony Volpe optioned? Mike Trout is BACK? That and more on this week's edition of the Mayday Update. Let's get into it... (36 mins)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of Major League Baseball's most injured teams every year it seems. Yet, it doesn't seem to hurt them as much as it might other teams. Why is that? Money, sure. But the real sauce is something else entirely. Let me explain... (14 mins)

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My producer, David Korn, dove into how Munetaka Murakami has been able to get off to such a hot start.

My writer, Henry Neiman, broke down what’s been going on with the Mariners bullpen.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Win Probability Added (WPA)

WPA quantifies the percent change in a team’s chances of winning from one event to the next. It does so by measuring the importance of a given plate appearance in the context of the game. For instance: a homer in a one-run game is worth more than a homer in a blowout.

A player’s WPA can also be affected on the basepaths. It will increase if he steals a base but decrease if he is caught stealing or picked off. (via MLB)

Formula: (Team’s win expectancy after a plate appearance or SB/CS/PK) - (team’s win expectancy before that plate appearance or SB/CS/PK).

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Munetaka Murakami’s posting and free agency was one of the most polarizing in recent memory.

Some considered him to be a generational power hitter. In 2022 as a 22-year-old, he hit 56 home runs for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows. After missing the first few months of the 2025 season with an oblique injury, Murakami returned to hit 22 home runs in just 224 plate appearances. No hitters except for Shohei Ohtani and Hideki Matsui had come to Major League Baseball from Japan with as much of a power-hitting pedigree.

But there were concerns, especially about his swing-and-miss and ability to handle velocity. Murakami’s Zone-Contact Rate, one of the most useful advanced metrics for contextualizing swing-and-miss, was 73% in NBP last season. The mean Zone-Contact Rate among qualified hitters in MLB this season is 84%. His contact rate on fastballs over 93 mph since 2022 was 63%, a figure that at first glance is a potential cause for concern given how much faster pitchers in MLB generally throw than the pitchers in NPB.

There were also some misleading numbers floating around social media exaggerating Murakami’s struggles against velocity, which while unlikely to have impacted front offices’ views of him changed his overall public perception.

At the start of the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected Murakami to sign an eight-year, $180 million contract. That is a significant gap between the two-year, $34 million contract he ended up signing with the Chicago White Sox after the market he expected to find never materialized.

Murakami has gotten off to a scorching start with the White Sox and has more-than outplayed his contract so far, utilizing the same type of “three true outcomes” baseball that he was so good at in NPB. He is second in MLB with 14 home runs and seventh in walks (28), but is second in strikeouts (55). 14 of his 31 hits have been home runs and he has just one non-homer extra-base hit, a double, which he hit on Monday, the 35th game of his Major League career.

A player Murakami has frequently been compared to? Three-time All-Star Kyle Schwarber, who finished second in National League MVP voting last season.

Here is how Murakami’s 2026 stats stack up to Schwarber’s:

Murakami: 14 HR, 28 BB, .237/.369/.565

Schwarber: 11 HR, 26 BB, .207/.352/.519

All of the concerns about velocity also appear to be overblown. After his home run on Monday against a 98.1 mph fastball, Murakami is the only player this season to have multiple home runs off of 98.0 mph+ pitches. Like most elite hitters, Murakami was able to adjust perfectly fine to the increased velocity at the next level.

So, how is Murakami having such a productive season? The swing-and-miss is clearly still there. His Zone-Contact rate this season is even lower than it was in Japan, 65.3%, the worst among qualified hitters. He also has the highest Whiff Rate at 43.9%, which is something you do not usually see for someone who walks as much as Murakami.

Murakami has elite plate discipline, and when he makes contact, he makes the most of it. He has the best Hard-Hit percentage in the league at 63.6%. He has the fourth-highest Barrel Rate at 22.1%. When Murakami sees a ball outside the zone, he rarely swings. His Out of Zone Swing Rate is 22.0%, 24th among qualified hitters.

Even if it may not be the most exciting brand of baseball, Murakami has mastered the “three true outcomes” of home runs, strikeouts and walks and has been one of the most impressive hitters in baseball in just his first month in the Majors.

Were front offices right to worry about his strikeouts? Maybe. That part of his game is still present, and will likely not go away any time soon. But it does not matter. Murakami is still hitting home runs and getting on base.

Here is where things could get interesting.

While the White Sox have made some significant strides and are just 1 ½ games back of the Cleveland Guardians in a surprisingly weak AL Central, they have a 17-20 record and do not look like they are ready to be considered true contenders.

Chicago could capitalize on Murakami’s play, low salary and team control through next season and sell extremely high on him at the trade deadline. The Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres are all teams that could look to upgrade at the corner infield or DH spots.

It was likely not Murakami’s first choice to sign with the White Sox, a team that is just one season removed from a historic 121-loss 2024 campaign. Almost every other team in baseball probably had a chance to beat the White Sox’s offer and sign Murakami themselves.

If the White Sox do decide to make their Japanese superstar available, there will be no shortage of suitors who would make sure not to make the same mistake twice and pass up an opportunity to acquire Murakami.

Ok maybe take a breath. But there is trouble in paradise over here in the PNW.

The Mariners have a great rotation. One of the best in the league, actually. Each of them can usually give a solid 5-7 innings of great work. But then what.

The Mariners bullpen is in dire shape right now. One week ago, everything was great. Matt Brash was cruising with a 0.00 ERA, Andres Munoz was finding his feet, Gabe Spier was looking great, and Eduard Bazardo and Jose Ferrer rounded out a solid bullpen. Fast forward to now, Brash is hurt, Spier is hurt, Munoz is exploding, and my blood pressure is spiking.

Andres Munoz is not looking anything like himself this season. He has allowed 11 ER in 15 innings, and given up 3 HR, already passing his season total of 2 in 2025. After giving up a game-winning HR to Matt Olson two nights ago, Munoz was sat last night in the ninth inning in favor of Jose Ferrer, who pitched three nights in a row to fill the gaps.

Munoz has talked this season about his struggles already, and that his confidence took a big hit after the disastrous 5-run blown save against the Padres a few weeks ago. Munoz may not have the same confidence in his slider right now, the pitch that blew him up in San Diego. Whatever the case is, there is a clear and present issue at the closer role in Seattle right now, where historically the ninth inning has been rock solid.

With Brash and Spier on the IL for now, a lot of pressure falls onto the ready arms of Jose Ferrer and Eduard Bazardo. Bazardo has been an absolute rock for the Mariners since the start of last season, and it’s no different so far in 2026. A 1.62 ERA and 2.48 FIP is exactly what the Mariners can count on from 2025’s most dependable reliever. Ferrer has been a welcome addition this offseason despite some bad BABIP luck to start the year. Ferrer has been the workhorse, with 19 IP already, and maintains a 1.89 ERA. H even took over closer duties last night for the struggling Munoz. With the best arm in the pen off his game, and the next two on the IL, the work that these two men have and will keep having to put in is vital to the Mariners these next few weeks. But they are only two arms, and most of the other guys in the pen are rookies and journeymen just here to fill spots. But there is one other arm that bears weight in the bullpen.

Cooper Criswell was picked up from Boston this offseason, in what I labeled as a “good project guy”. He wasn’t anything special, but maybe the pitching staff could turn him into a bullpen staple. At the start of May, it might be working for Criswell already. A 2.20 ERA in 16.1 IP so far, almost matching his IP for all of 2025 already. With a 25.4% strikeout rate, Criswell has made himself the first or second guy off the bench in these slim bullpen times. The only real issue for him so far is the contact that he gives up. 3 HR, an average Exit Velo of 92.4 (his highest in 5 years) and a 52.5% hard hit rate are all concerning factors. When hitters do make contact off of Criswell, that contact is good. But the more he can strike batters out, the longer Criswell has a spot in the pen.

So some arms are still good for the Mariners. But 2.5 good pitchers does not make up a bullpen. It’s only a matter of time before Ferrer or Bazardo go down from all the work they are putting in already. A healthy Brash and Spier can relieve the pressure, but everyone really cares about one thing: is Andres Munoz going to figure it out soon? (please please please)

Go M’s,

Henry “Bazardo Fan Club Founding Member” Neiman

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

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Have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes of MLB travel? So many great questions, it’s time to answer them. Let’s get into it... (22 mins)

The Boston Red Sox just fired SIX coaches on Saturday including manager Alex Cora, who was in the middle of a deal worth $22 million over three years. They had only played 27 games. So what happened and what comes next? I am joined by former Red Sox player and current analyst Rich Hill to find out... (44 mins)

The Colorado Rockies had a team ERA of 6.55 last year. This year is a different story. So what changed? A lot. Let’s get into it... (15 mins)

Tatsuya Imai has had some struggles here at the beginning of his MLB career. A lot of them are par for the course and really common among fellow Japanese players coming over to the United States. What I didn’t expect, was HOW he pitches. Let me explain... (18 mins)

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My producer, David Korn, wrote about my conversation with Rich Hill on the Red Sox firing Alex Cora.

My writer, Henry Neiman, wrote about Cole Young’s rise for his Mariners blog, Vitamin SEA.

STAT OF THE WEEK - wRC+

wRC+ is a stat that measures a hitter’s overall offensive value compared to league average. It takes all of a hitter’s contributions at the plate and translates that to his impact on runs created for his team.

wRC+ attempts to credit the hitter for the appropriate value of each outcome of a plate appearance -- a home run is worth more than a single, for example -- rather than treat all hits equally (as in batting average) or all times on base equally (as in on-base percentage).

A wRC+ of 100 means a league-average hitter, and a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter is 50% better than league average. Every point of wRC+ above or below 100 is equal to one percentage point above or below average. (via MLB)

Formula (via FanGraphs):

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The Boston Red Sox made the shocking decision to fire manager Alex Cora on Saturday. Along with Cora, five other coaches, hitting coach Pete Fatse, bench coach Ramón Vázquez, third base coach Kyle Hudson, assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson and major league hitting strategy coach Joe Cronin were also fired. Game planning and run prevention coach Jason Varitek, who was in his 30th year with the organization as a player and coach, was re-assigned to a new role but chose to leave the organization, per MassLive’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo.

21-year MLB veteran Rich Hill had four separate stints with the Red Sox (2010-12, 2015, 2022 and 2024) and is currently doing Red Sox pre and postgame analysis on NESN. He was also teammates with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow in 2012 and 2015, was managed by Cora in 2022 and 2024 and was signed as a free agent by Breslow in 2024.

Hill is intimately aware of the dynamics at play in Boston, and shared some of his insights with our own Trevor May, his former teammate on the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets, on Tuesday.

“I did not see this coming,” Hill said when asked about his initial reaction to the news.

The Red Sox had a 10-17 record and were in last place in the AL East at the time of Cora’s firing, but Cora had built up a reputation as one of the best managers in baseball and the Red Sox’s issues appeared to stem more from a roster-building standpoint than anything to do with the day-to-day managing of the team.

Entering Saturday, the Red Sox were tied for last in the majors in home runs (15), last in slugging percentage (.335) and last in wRC+ (78). The starting rotation was 27th in ERA (5.31) and 27th in FIP (4.96).

It is difficult to place the entirety of the blame on Cora and his hitting staff for the offensive struggles when Rafael Devers was traded last season and Alex Bregman left in the offseason to sign with the Chicago Cubs.

On the pitching side, The most senior member of the coaching staff who remained in their position was pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who Breslow signed when he took over as chief baseball officer in 2023. The only member of the hitting staff who Breslow retained is John Soteropulos, who has a background with Driveline, the polarizing, data-driven baseball development lab. Driveline’s founder, Kyle Boddy, is also a special advisor with the Red Sox.

“The underlying issue with this is a difference in philosophies,” Hill said. “As things are coming out we’re seeing more of the Driveline philosophy that has been pushed with this administration as opposed to the traditional baseball philosophy with Alex Cora and the group of coaches that were dismissed.”

Hill also expressed concern over Trevor Story and Garrett Whitlock’s reactions to how Breslow and the Red Sox front office communicated the decision to the players on Sunday.

“There just have to be more conversations had,” Story said per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. “I wouldn’t say it was satisfactory. We’ll have our talk. We haven’t had it yet.”

“If this shows us anything, it’s that we’re here to play baseball. That’s it,” Story continued. “We don’t make decisions. We don’t have any input on that. We’re here to play baseball and our job is to win games. I think that’s the message. We have to find a way to win games.”

“They made it very clear that we get paid to play baseball and we just need to focus on playing baseball,” Whitlock said per Cotillo.

“It’s a lot of ‘shut up and dribble,’” Hill said, referencing when Fox News host Laura Ingraham said that same phrase to LeBron James in 2018 after he spoke out about politics.

Hill also described Whitlock and Story, who he was teammates with in 2022 and 2024, as “extremely level-headed players.”

“These are guys I want to hear from, guys whose opinions I value,” Hill said. “If I’m a free agent and Boston comes calling, there’s already trepidation with players coming into Boston… Now, you’re having free agents who are already going to have something else to question coming into an organization that may not value their veteran presence or value that veteran experience and veteran leadership.”

When discussing working with the Red Sox front office when he was with the organization, Hill compared it to when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2016-2019.

Hill said that constant communication, productive clubhouse culture and organizational alignment were all present with Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, who was the Dodgers general manager during Hill’s tenure with the team.

An example that Hill shared was back in 2017, Zaidi spoke with Hill and other players about how they would like the team to approach the final month of the year. That season, the Dodgers finished with 104 wins, but at one point had a chance to break the regular season win record, set at 116 wins by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and the 1906 Chicago Cubs.

“He asked me, ‘do you guys want to clinch the division early and take a couple of weeks off and get some rest or win 120 games,’” Hill recalled.

One of the final points Hill made was that he believed this would be a valuable learning experience for the Red Sox’s young players, like 22-year-old Roman Anthony, 23-year-old Marcelo Mayer, 23-year-old Payton Tolle and 24-year-old Connelly Early. Hill said it should be “a rude awakening” to them that because of their performance, Cora and the majority of his staff lost their jobs.

Cole Young is having an incredible start to the year. He was an afterthought for me during my offseason grading, and honestly I expected him to start the year either at third base or on the bench. But with Donovan moving over to third, and subsequently to the IL, second base is a Young Man’s Game.

Cole Young currently leads all second basemen in bWAR with 1.9, slashing .278/.352/.407 with 3 HR, when he had 4 HR in all of last season. He is currently on a streak, with RBI’s in each of the last five games (actually as I am writing this he just got another RBI so make it six games, this kid is awesome), something a Mariner hasn’t done before turning 23 since A-Rod. His defense at second base has been incredible, leading the league so far in DRS, with only one error.

He’s been Cole Clutch this year also. With the RBI double he hit literally just now, Cole Young now has 4 go-ahead or game-tying RBI in the 7th inning or later, tied for most in baseball, per the Mariners. The second-year second baseman is not shy of the bright lights. (EDIT: He did it again 15 minutes after I posted this, it’s now 6 RBI)

What makes this such an especially good start is the massive improvement from last season. Cole Young looked like his roster spot was in trouble, and with all the talk about Colt Emerson and Brendan Donovan, Young was in danger of being left behind. Last season he put up 0.5 bWAR in 77 games, not even making the postseason roster. When spring training rolled around this year, Young showed up a little bigger and a little stronger, blasting six home runs. His power has translated well to the regular season. He’s hitting the ball harder and further than last year, with a lower ground ball percentage than last year. Really the only thing that he hasn’t improved from last season is his strikeout rate, which has climbed a little, up to 22% from 18%. But a little more swing and miss is a fine tradeoff for the considerable offensive uptick from the 22-year old, even though it could be why he still sits in the bottom of the batting order.

With Donovan returning to third base soon, the one question remaining is: What happens to Cole Young when the Mariners eventually call up Colt Emerson this season? His huge contract all but confirms he will see a big-league team this year, so where do you put him? As I mentioned before when talking about Emerson, the Mariners want to keep JP Crawford at shortstop, Emerson, Donovan, and Young will have two positions in the field to fight for. With Young’s hot start, this would get much more difficult.

While I’m singing Cole Young’s praises, someone who I didn’t pick to break out this year, I have a few apologies to give out.

First to Luke Raley, who I had expected to be off this team in the offseason, has turned things around so far from a sluggish 2025. 5 HR and an OPS of .827 so far is enough for me to say sorry.

And second to the heart of the order in Julio, Cal, and Naylor. Since my last frustrated post, they have all taken my advice and started playing good baseball. Julio especially makes me happy, as the ongoing talk of “Julio can’t hit in the first half” has stalled out finally.

The Mariners offense has really picked it up in the last week or so, with the usual suspects heating up. But if Cole Young can continue to play like he has been, the bottom of the Mariners lineup will be deadly.

Go M’s,

Henry “#1 Fan of Winning Baseball Games” Neiman

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

Our next BONUS video for paid subscribers will be live on Wednesday, April 29. I interview my former teammate and current Mets reliever Robert Stock about his new pitching model and all things pitching analytics.

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Fan of the new ABS system? You’ll love the new “Nope” merch!

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Mayday! the Podcast

Jackson Merrill plays hero for Padres

Shohei Ohtani dominates on the mound

Should Aaron Boone be platooning Ben Rice?

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

Rates & Barrells

Logan GIlbert’s comebacker

The Reds’ hot start to the season

Juan Soto’s comments about his teammates

And more!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

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I'm ready to play (again), coach. (10 mins)

We've heard about Jordan Walker's 5 tools for years now, but up to this point it’s been flashes at best. That was before 2026. He has exploded onto the scene this season, raising one big question... is the breakout finally happening? Let's talk about it... (16 mins)

The Mets need to do something fast, Mason Miller is already chasing records, and we may have another Kyle Schwarber on our hands.... let’s jump right in! (23 mins)

Welcome to the first episode of Punchin’ Tickets, a series explaining why pitchers are, or are NOT, good. This week’s pitcher is Padres phenom Mason Miller, who is on a historic tear to start the season. Can he keep it up? Let’s find out... (16 mins)

What it like to have a blow up as a closer? Should Ben Rice be Playing everyday? This, and more in the latest Mayday Catch Up. Lets get into it... (33 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about why the Mets’ recent losing streak was not Carlos Mendoza’s fault.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Hard-hit Rate

Statcast defines a ‘hard-hit ball’ as one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, and a player’s “hard-hit rate” is simply showing the percentage of batted balls that were hit at 95 mph or more.

Why 95 mph? Because that’s when exit velocity begins to “matter.” Another way of saying that is that balls hit at 40 mph or 70 mph will affect your average exit velocity differently, but in terms of outcomes, they’re just two varieties of weakly hit balls. For true production, you need to get to 95 mph. (via MLB)

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Is New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza on the hot seat? That is the question Mets fans and others around baseball are grappling with as the Amazins are currently in the midst of a shocking 12-game losing streak.

But is this Mendoza’s fault?

The issues with the Mets that have been magnified during this losing streak can not be blamed on the manager. The biggest problem? With Juan Soto out since April 4 with a calf injury, the Mets’ offense has completely stalled out.

Even with Soto set to return on Wednesday in the second game of the Mets’ series against the Minnesota Twins, there are other flaws that can not be blamed on Mendoza.

Most of those flaws can be explained by poor roster construction and coaching staff turnover, both of which do not fall under Mendoza’s purview, but are the responsibility of president of baseball operations David Stearns.

After a disappointing 2025 season that saw the Mets collapse down the stretch and fail to advance to the postseason, Stearns made a lot of moves.

The first of those moves was a rare, one-for-one swap of Major Leaguers between contenders where he sent Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semien to help shore up the infield defense. So far, Nimmo is off to a scorching start with Texas with a .495 SLG, which would be a career high. On the other side, Semien’s bat is continuing to decline, and he is on pace for a career-worst OPS.

Stearns failed to add another established, starting-caliber corner outfielder, and that lack of depth has only been magnified with Soto out. 23-year-old rookie Carson Benge is hitting well-below the Mendoza line, Brett Baty is struggling at the plate while getting his first taste of outfield action and 38-year-old Tommy Pham just does not seem to have much left in the tank.

When Edwin Diaz chose to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Stearns pivoted and signed Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million deal to fill the closer role. Williams had a very rough 2025 after being traded to the New York Yankees, recording a 4.79 ERA and being demoted from the closer role. Even though he was just a year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, there were real concerns about Williams.

Those concerns have not been assuaged. Williams was charged with the loss on Tuesday against the Twins, coming in with a tie game in the ninth and giving up a hit, walking three batters and allowing two runs to score without recording an out. Before Tuesday’s implosion, Williams had given up a grand slam to the Dodgers on April 15 and blew a save against the Cubs on Sunday. Through his first eight games, Williams has given up seven runs in 6 ⅓ innings and has a jaw-dropping .588 BAbip.

For a breakdown of Devin Williams’ struggles with the Yankees last season, check out this video from Trevor May:

The biggest, and most expensive move of the Mets offseason was signing Bo Bichette to a three-year, $162 million contract with player options for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. The early returns on that deal are not encouraging. Bichette, while playing third base for the first time in his career, is slashing .219/./.255/.281 with one home run through 23 games. Those numbers are almost identical to his disappointing, injury-riddled 2024 season that was supposed to be a fluke, where he hit .225/.277/.322 with four home runs in 81 games.

On the coaching side, Stearns cleared house this offseason. Notably, hitting coaches Jeremy Barnes and Eric Chavez and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who is one of the most widely-respected minds in the sport, were let go. Throughout the Mets’ 12-game losing streak, they have averaged just 1.8 runs per game, have been shut out three times and have scored more than two runs just three times.

This is not to necessarily blame the new hitting coaches, Major League hitting director Jeff Albert, hitting coach Troy Snitker or assistant hitting coach Rafael Fernandez, but there are real questions that need to be asked about the Mets’ organizational offensive approach.

It is not an encouraging sign that these questions are being asked, but at least as of now, the players are still on Mendoza’s side (all quotes are after Sunday’s loss to the Cubs via MLB.com’s Brent Maguire).

“It’s absolutely on us,” Devin Williams said. “[Mendoza] doesn’t swing the bat and he doesn’t throw a baseball. We’ve been in a lot of these games. It’s been close. Him or somebody else is not affecting that. If we’re not getting the job done, somebody else isn’t just magically gonna flip a switch and we’re gonna get it done. He’s putting guys in good positions. We’re not performing.”

“He’s done a fantastic job,” Francisco Lindor said. “This is not on him. He has made sure everyone here is prepared. Every coach here is prepared. We have the information; it comes down on us. Mendy’s our guy. He’s our leader. He’s in control and he’s done a tremendous job.”

“It’s on everyone. We’re in this together. Everyone has a part in this, and we’ve got to stick together,” David Peterson said. “Everyone’s got to take responsibility and accountability. We all need to look in the mirror and see what we can do better to help this team move in the right direction. That’s the job. Come back Tuesday, fight like hell and play our brand of baseball.”

It is easy to nitpick Mendoza’s performance. Sure, he could have pitched around Nico Hoerner on Sunday. On Tuesday, he could have gone to someone other than the struggling Williams with the game tied in the ninth. He could keep the struggling Benge on the bench more. But the Mets’ fundamental issues are out of Mendoza’s control.

This is a poorly-constructed roster that is not able to even tread water without Soto. That is not Mendoza’s fault, and it would be a shame if he loses his job because of that.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

Our next BONUS video for paid subscribers will be live soon. I interview my former teammate and current Mets reliever Robert Stock about his new pitching model and all things pitching analytics.

Tune in to the Drake Toll Show on Westwood One this morning at 7:20 a.m. and 8:40 a.m. ET to to hear my guest appearance! If you miss it, catch it on the Drake Toll Show Youtube page or on the Westwood One app.

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

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And more!

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Andres Munoz and Devin Williams struggling

Scouting report for rookie pitchers

Noelvi Marte optioned

And more!

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📺 WATCH 📺

MLB has a storied history of cheating. From doctoring the ball, corking bats, and hitting garbages cans, players seemed to always find some way to get an advantage. You’ve likely heard a lot about it over the years, but I guarantee that we found SOMETHING that will be new to you. Let hop in... (25 mins)

Garrett Crochet just had the WORST START IN BOSTON RED SOX HISTORY. Yes, you read that right. So how did it happen? Let me explain... (21 mins)

The Tampa Bay Rays have their beloved Trop back and they might just have the future of their franchise currently playing third base. Let's jump into it... (12 mins)

📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about why Ben Rice should be playing every day.

STAT OF THE WEEK - wOBA

wOBA is a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base -- instead of simply considering whether a player reached base. The value for each method of reaching base is determined by how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored (example: a double is worth more than a single).

For instance: In 2014, a home run was worth 2.101 times on base, while a walk was worth 0.69 times on base. So a player who went 1-for-4 with a home run and a walk would have a wOBA of .558 -- (2.101 + 0.69 / 5 PAs).

Where “factor” indicates the adjusted run expectancy of a batting event in the context of the season as a whole: (unintentional BB factor x unintentional BB + HBP factor x HBP + 1B factor x 1B + 2B factor x 2B + 3B factor x 3B + HR factor x HR)/(AB + unintentional BB + SF + HBP). (via MLB)

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Ben Rice has the best OBP, SLG, WRC+, wOBA and BB% in Major League Baseball. Rice has also not been in the New York Yankees’ starting lineup for three of the last five games.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone is sticking to his platoon strategy and sitting the left-handed hitting Rice to start games when they are facing a lefty, benching him four out of the five times the Yankees have faced a southpaw this season. While Boone has shown that he has no issues aggressively using Rice as a pinch hitter later in games, it is still difficult to justify leaving potential at-bats for Rice on the table for Paul Goldschmidt.

What makes this such a tough call for Boone is Goldschmidt’s success against left-handed pitching. In 162 appearances against lefties last season, Goldschmidt slashed .336/.411/.570.

But on the other hand, the 27-year-old Rice, who is entering his second full season, is no slouch when he has gotten the opportunity to hit against lefties. Here are his splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching:

Last season, in 411 plate appearances against RHP, Rice slashed .269/.356/.504 with 19 home runs. In 119 plate appearances against LHP, his numbers were .208/.271/.481 with seven homers. There is a clear, understandable drop-off, but it is not as disastrous as some other players across baseball who get platooned.

As is the case with most young hitters, the only way for Rice to improve against lefties is for him to get at-bats. Rice and the Yankees know this.

“I think last year, I was overall a productive hitter versus (lefties),” Rice said to The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner on Tuesday. “The only way to continue to get better is to see them. I’m still going to get reps against them. I’m still going to face lefty relievers, at least like I have been, and start against certain guys.”

The issue is, the Yankees do not have a lot of flexibility to have Goldschmidt and Rice in the lineup together.

So far this season, Rice has only appeared as a first baseman or designated hitter. He can also catch, starting 26 games there last season, but he has yet to make any appearances as a catcher so far this season. Goldschmidt has only ever played at first base, and the Yankees primary designated hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, should probably not be getting too many reps in the outfield given his extensive injury history and chronic pain.

But at a certain point, Rice needs to be given more consistent opportunities to prove that he can hit lefties. It is a small sample size, but Rice has shown this season that he is one of the best hitters in baseball. He is in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, 99th percentile in average exit velo and 98th percentile in barrel rate. Let’s just say there is a lot of red on his baseball savant page. Hitters like that need to be playing every day.

The 38-year-old Goldschmidt’s defense has also regressed to a point where he is no longer an upgrade over Rice at first base. Goldschmidt had a -2 fielding run value last season and Rice’s fielding run value at first base was 1.

The easy answer to this is to work Rice in at catcher against lefties. The Yankees everyday catcher, Austin Wells, who like Rice hits lefty, also has poor platoon splits. Wells’ career OPS against RHP is .741. Against LHP, it is .614.

But Boone has his doubts.

“I’m not ready to catch Benny,” Boone said to NJ.com’s Randy Miller before the Yankees’ 7-1 loss to the Angels on Tuesday. “I would put him in a game, but I’m not ready to go five, seven, whatever innings with him yet.”

“I feel like we’ll get there, but we want to keep the focus on a lot of his first base work, as well,” Boone added.

Having Rice at catcher has its drawbacks. Last season, he had a -2 fielding run value at catcher, was a -1 in framing, was 91st in arm strength with an average of 74.9 mph and was 78th with a -2 in blocking. At least statistically, Rice is a much more valuable defender at first base.

So here are the Yankees’ options appear to be to ensure Rice is in the lineup every day:

1. Stop platooning Rice with Goldschmidt and make Rice the everyday first baseman.

2. Give an aging and chronically injured Stanton some rest against LHP, play Goldschmidt at first and DH Rice.

3. Work Rice in at catcher for Wells against LHP.

The Yankees have a 9-8 record to start the season and have lost six of their last seven games. In what is expected to be a very competitive AL East, they can not afford to keep losing.

There is no reason why Rice should not be in the lineup. While none of the options are perfect, Boone has ways to play him every day. The Yankees’ skipper needs to stop overthinking things and give MLB’s best statistical hitter at this point in the season as many at-bats as possible, regardless of any potential platoon splits.

Rice has earned the benefit of the doubt and should have an opportunity to prove himself against left-handed pitching.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Mayday! will no longer be live. Make sure to check out the More Mayday Youtube channel for pre-recorded versions of all of the segments you know and love!

Our next BONUS video for paid subscribers will be live soon. I interview my former teammate and current Mets reliever Robert Stock about his new pitching model and all things pitching analytics.

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Want to throw cheese? Well, you only need to LET IT EAT!

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Tony Vitello’s managerial style

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📝READ📝

My producer, David Korn, wrote about Red Sox fans chanting “sell the team.”

My writer, Henry Neiman, wrote about the tough road trip for the Mariners.

STAT OF THE WEEK - Fielding Run Value

Fielding Run Value (FRV) combines all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics into one stat that measures a player’s overall defensive value.

FRV is measured on a run-base scale -- it shows the runs a player saves from his defense, compared to an average player. A positive Fielding Run Value reflects above-average defensive performance, while a negative Fielding Run Value reflects below-average defensive performance.

Since Statcast uses different scales for different individual areas of defensive performance -- range, throwing, framing, blocking, double plays, etc. -- the conversion to one, run-based scale is necessary to place all performance on the same level. This allows defenders of all positions to be compared to one another. (via MLB)

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I was in attendance for Monday’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park as a spectator. Sitting in the right field bleachers by the visiting team’s bullpen amongst the die-hard fans, it was impossible to ignore the constant “sell the team” chants happening throughout the 8-6 loss.

Here is a quick video I took of one of the many “sell the team” chants:

Monday was not the only time that happened. Red Sox fans had been chanting “sell the team” throughout the first homestand. The Red Sox have faltered coming out of the gate and at the time, were on their way to an MLB-worst 2-8 start to the season.

This difficult start comes after an especially tumultuous two-year stretch under Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow highlighted by trading Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants last June and failing to re-sign Alex Bregman, who signed a five-year, $175 contract with the Chicago Cubs this past offseason instead of returning to Boston.

Despite the recent uncertainty, the current Red Sox ownership has been one of the most successful in modern sports history. Since Fenway Sports Group, led by Principal Owner John Henry, Chairman Michael Werner and President and CEO Sam Kennedy, purchased the Red Sox in 2001, they have led the team to four championships (2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018), the most out of any team this century.

So why are Red Sox fans so upset? There has been a clear investment in the team that many fanbases would be envious of. According to FanGraphs’ roster resource payroll breakdown, the Red Sox have the sixth-highest luxury tax projection. After missing out on Bregman this offseason, Boston quickly pivoted and signed Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million contract, showing that they were willing to invest long-term in their current roster.

Henry and Fenway Sports Group have an image problem.

Most of the fan unrest began following the 2019 season when the Red Sox traded superstar Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers one year before he would hit free agency after not being able to agree on an extension. Since Betts was traded, the Dodgers have won three World Series. The Red Sox have made it to the postseason just twice. In that same time frame, the Red Sox also let fan-favorite Xander Bogaerts walk in free agency.

After the Red Sox traded Devers last season, no players were left on the team from the 2018 championship.

The last time that Henry held a press conference and took questions from the media was in 2020 after the Red Sox traded Betts. Since that press conference, he has only done two interviews. In March, Henry tweeted for the first time since 2021 to poke fun at controversial Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy. That type of inaccessibility only exacerbates fans’ frustrations and gives them a reason to believe that ownership is avoiding being asked potentially difficult questions.

Fenway Sports Group has also expanded their portfolio to other professional sports teams, giving Boston fans the impression that the Red Sox are no longer their priority and other money being spent on those ventures is coming at the expense of potential investment in the Red Sox.

In 2010, Fenway Sports Group purchased English football team Liverpool F.C. and turned them into one of the most successful clubs in all of Europe. Liverpool won the Premier League in 2019-20 and 2024-25 and the Champions League in 2018-19 and features some of the biggest names in the sport. In the last year, Liverpool paid transfer fees of €145 million and €125 million for Aleksander Isak and Florian Wirtz. Fenway Sports Group has also had ownership stakes in the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins, NASCAR team Roush Fenway Racing and Boston Common Golf in the new TGL.

Red Sox players have noticed their fans’ frustrations with ownership.

“It’s weird because regardless of how you feel about the ownership group, the chants always come with you guys make an error, you guys walk a run in, you guys strike out with the bases loaded. They are (expletive) on us, but not saying it. It’s weird,” Garrett Crochet said to WEEI’s Rob Bradford after Tuesday’s 3-2 win over the Brewers. “It’s just passion, at the end of the day. We know when we’re doing bad. … I think it’s fair to want more and want us to get the job done and just play clean baseball. I don’t think that’s asking a lot of us to play clean baseball.”

The Red Sox have been playing a bit better since the “sell the team” chants started, taking the last two against the Brewers to win their first series of the new 2026 season. But there are still clear flaws. Caleb Durbin, who the Red Sox traded for as a cost-effective option with years of team control to replace Bregman at third base, is struggling mightily at the plate and in the field, hitting just .111 and recording two errors. Suarez, the team’s biggest offseason addition, has given up eight runs over 8 ⅓ innings in his first two starts.

If the Red Sox keep struggling throughout the season, “sell the team” chants will continue to ring throughout Fenway Park. Big-market teams are not supposed to lose their best players at the rate the Red Sox have lost theirs and fans are losing patience.

The hard part about writing and talking about baseball for a living is that when your team sucks, there’s nowhere to hide.

The Mariners have dropped five games in a row, and in classic Mariner fashion, wasted one of the best pitching staffs in the league with some truly catatonic offense. Of course it’s early, but dropping an ugly series to the Angels only to turn around and get swept by the Rangers is bad news. Five divisional losses in a row is bad at any point in the season, as these games could be vital for future tiebreakers.

Not only have the Mariners dropped five in a row, they have done it in very frustrating fashion:

April 4th @ Angels: Mariners lose 1-0 after Jo Adell robs THREE HOME RUNS.

April 5th @ Angels: Mariners lose 8-7 in 11 innings after five lead changes and striking out fifteen times

April 6th @ Rangers: Mariners lose 2-1, Cal Raleigh finally gets his first home run of the year only for the Mariners to summon no more offense.

April 7th @ Rangers: Mariners lose 3-2, Kyle Higashioka of all people hits the eventual game-winning home run.

April 8th @ Rangers: Mariners lose 3-0, Connor Joe throws the ball over Mitch Garvers head to cause all three runs to score, Mariners get two hits.

This is sluggish baseball that cannot be blamed on the marine layer, this is in Anaheim and Arlington. The Mariners are last in the league as a team in batting average with .184, and last in OPS with .581. Over the last five games, the Mariners have struck out 54 times, averaging almost 11 per game. Two weeks into the season, the group of Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Josh Naylor have combined for -0.4 bWAR, slashing .130/.220/.164, 1 home run, and 45 strikeouts. I am not loving what I am seeing. In the meantime, the pitching staff is top 5 in the league in nearly every category, a situation that seems to happen every single season for this Mariners team.

The Mariners mercifully have a day off today, before starting another important four games at home against Houston. The Astros have a team ERA of 6.05, good for 29th in MLB, and they just lost their ace in Hunter Brown for at least three weeks. With the dismal pitching from Houston and the equally dismal offense from Seattle, this will be a series to forget.

Ok I’ve gotten all the frustration out of my system. It has only been two weeks, Mariners fans know that this team starts slow offensively, and this team is full of players who are proven to be consistently good. When they catch fire in the summer and fans forget all about this slow start it will feel very good. A struggling Houston team at home is exactly what this team needs to jump start the season. Win this series, and don’t look back. Please. Please. Please.

Go M’s,

Henry “Really thankful for Brendan Donovan” Neiman

ANNOUNCEMENTS

There will be no live Mayday! later today, but stay tuned for an exciting announcement about the future of the show.

Our next BONUS video for paid subscribers will be live soon. I interview my former teammate and current Mets reliever Robert Stock about his new pitching model and all things pitching analytics.

I developed something new… Percentile! Can you guess the player based on the advanced metrics provided in this Wordle-style game? Try it out here!

New merch is live! Want to throw cheese? Well, you only need to LET IT EAT!

NEW STUFF

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A tough day for umpires

ABS strategies for specific umpires

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Bo Bichette’s slow start

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Ranking the top 10 rotations!

Listen to all the new episodes here!

📺 WATCH 📺

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It's hard to be an MLB umpire, especially right now. Also, prospects are getting paid, pitchers are dominating, and a rookie got a scare. Let's jump into the news! (13 mins)

The rookie phenoms have come out swinging, a veteran stumbles out of the gate in Flushing, and the ABS shows us that one umpire is exactly who we thought he was. Let’s jump right in... (31 mins)

The regular season is here, so it’s time to make our extremely well researched and very likely to happen predictions for the 2026 MLB season. Let's run it... (15 mins)

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My producer, David Korn, wrote about Dave Roberts’ Opening Day comments about this being his best Dodgers team yet.

Mayday

Dave Roberts says this is his best Dodgers team yet. Is it?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to become one of baseball’s all-time great dynasties. Coming off of back-to-back World Series titles and another excellent offseason headlined by the signings of Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker, Dave Roberts made quite a claim…

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2 months ago · 5 likes · 3 comments · David Korn

My writer, Henry Neiman, wrote about the Mariners giving their top prospect, Colt Emerson, a new extension.

Mayday

Vitamin SEA: Colt $95

Colt Emerson, you are buying dinner for the team tonight…

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2 months ago · Henry Neiman

Henry also reacted to the Mariners Opening Day loss.

Mayday

Vitamin SEA: Opening Day Jitters

Baseball is back! The Mariners already have lost a game that they should have won. It’s like they never left…

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2 months ago · Henry Neiman

STAT OF THE WEEK - Sweet Spot

Colloquially, a player who hits the ball solidly is said to have gotten the “sweet spot” of the bat on the ball. The sweet spot classification quantifies that as a batted-ball event with a launch angle ranging from 8 to 32 degrees.

A player’s sweet spot percentage -- or how often he produces a batted-ball event in the launch angle sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees -- is presented on Statcast leaderboards under LA SwSp%.

Sweet spot percentage can be used in concert with hard-hit rate -- the percentage of a player’s batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. (via MLB)

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Colt Emerson, you are buying dinner for the team tonight.

The Mariners just set the record for the largest contract given to a player who hasn’t set foot in the majors yet, handing out an 8-year, $95 million deal with incentives up to $130 million to Colt Emerson, the #1 prospect for the Mariners and the #7 prospect overall. The previous record was held by the Brewers’ Jackson Chourio, with 8yr/$82mil. Emerson’s deal also includes a ninth year club option and a full no-trade clause.

Is this a good deal? Are the Mariners taking a huge risk on a guy with no major league time yet? Who even is this Colt Emerson guy anyway besides an objectively cool name?

Last season, across three levels of minor league ball, Emerson slashed .285/.383/.458 with 16 home runs, an 11.8% walk rate, and a 17.5% strikeout rate. Emerson sees the ball well and has consistently performed over three levels of minor league ball, and is already raking to start the year in AAA Tacoma.

Colt Emerson is in a great place to fit in the new Mariners look. JP Crawford, bless his heart, is getting old and is in the last year of his contract, so this contract for a young, highly touted shortstop prospect is all but the nail in the coffin for JP next season. We here in Seattle all wish the best for the captain but recognize when it is time for the younger generation to step in.

It has been a good few weeks for minor league contracts, with the Brewers locking up their own SS prospect Cooper Pratt for 8yr/$50mil. Teams are trusting in their young talent and I’m glad the Mariners are part of it. Seattle has an extremely strong pool of talent waiting in the minor leagues, especially on the pitching side with dual aces in Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson, but Colt Emerson is the true star on offense. Locking down the shortstop of the future is a great move, and showing that the team is willing to hand out contracts is a good look.

If (when) Colt gets called up this season, it might throw some confusion into the infield. Daniel Kramer reported that the plans would be to keep JP Crawford at shortstop this season, while having Colt Emerson play third base, leaving Brendan Donovan as a floating island. He has to play every day but there’s no secure spot in the field for him? If this Emerson contract means his ascension to the big leagues is soon, I worry for the well-being of Mariners fans watching Crawford, Emerson, Donovan, and Cole Young get mixed and matched every day. It’s good to have the problem of too much talent, but it is still a problem.

Confusion aside, Colt Emerson is a real talent who I am excited to see make his big league debut probably soon. The hype around him is building rapidly, and I’m holding my breath hoping he’s a Julio Rodriguez and not a Jarred Kelenic.

Go M’s,

Henry “I hate losing to the Yankees” Neiman

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the chance to become one of baseball’s all-time great dynasties. Coming off of back-to-back World Series titles and another excellent offseason headlined by the signings of Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker, Dave Roberts made quite a claim to NBC Sports’ Bob Costas ahead of Opening Day.

“On paper, this is the best team we’ve had,” Roberts said.

The 2024 and 2025 Dodgers are widely considered some of the best teams in baseball history. Could the 2026 Dodgers really be better?

The only player who had meaningful contributions in the 2025 postseason who is not back is lefty reliever Anthony Banda, who the Dodgers sent to the Minnesota Twins for international bonus pool money. Righty reliever Kirby Yates and outfielder Michael Conforto, who were both left off of the postseason rosters after disappointing regular seasons, also left in free agency.

Yates and Conforto were effectively replaced by Diaz and Tucker. The bullpen was one of the only potential weak spots for the Dodgers, with Roki Sasaki filling in admirably as a temporary stopgap, racking up three saves during their postseason run. With Diaz, a three-time All-Star and one of the game’s best closers, that is no longer a concern.

The third outfield spot that Conforo held down for most of 2025, but was taken over by utilityman and postseason hero Kiké Hernandez down the stretch, is now Tucker’s. Tucker is a four-time All-Star, and when healthy, is a bonafide MVP candidate. Last year, in the first half before being slowed down with a broken finger and calf strain, Tucker hit .280 with a .882 OPS, 17 home runs and 22 steals.

Even before Tucker, the Dodgers lineup was silly. With him, they have the potential to start seven All-Stars. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy and Tucker.

The starting rotation might be even better. Yoshinobu Yamamoto reached another level last season, putting the Dodgers on his back during the World Series with his other-worldly MVP performance that included a Game 2 complete game, six innings of one-run ball in Game 6 and 2 ⅔ innings of scoreless relief to close out Game 7 on no days rest. Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who is dealing with left shoulder inflammation, should be back sometime in May. Tyler Glasnow is healthy and his curveball is looking especially sharp. Ohtani had a strong spring training on the pitching side, tossing 4 ⅓ scoreless innings in his first appearance and striking out 11 last week in an Freeway Series exhibition start against the Los Angeles Angels.

The biggest question mark in the rotation, and the potential key for this truly being Roberts’ best Dodgers team, is Sasaki. Sasaki has had a fascinating start to his MLB career. Forgoing the traditional posting process to sign a minor league deal and get to MLB earlier than most Japanese players, Sasaki had an up-and-down, injury-plagued regular season. He pitched to a 4.46 ERA in 10 appearances (eight starts), but ended up playing a crucial role in the Dodgers makeshift bullpen throughout the postseason, appearing in nine games, throwing 10 ⅔ innings, recording three saves and giving up just one run.

Sasaki is back in the Dodgers rotation in 2026. But, there are legitimate concerns after a disappointing spring training performance. In four spring starts, Sasaki had a 15.58 ERA with 15 walks in 8 ⅔ innings, clearly struggling with his command.

Some of those concerns were alleviated, at least for now, after Sasaki’s regular season debut on Monday. He threw four innings of one-run ball, struck out four and walked two in a 4-2 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. That line may not jump off of the box score, but it showed marked improvement over what Sasaki looked like in the Cactus League. His four-seamer reached 99.5 mph, his new cutter showed promise and he proved that he can contribute to a stacked Dodgers pitching staff. If Sasaki is able to build off of his season debut, the Dodgers rotation could be historically great.

For more on Roki Sasaki, check out this video from Trevor May:

The other potential concern for the Dodgers is their age. Freeman is 36, Muncy is 35, Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are 33. That is a lot of mileage in the middle of the Dodgers lineup.

Betts especially is a prime candidate to regress. As a player who relies on his athleticism and is a slim 5’9”, based on body type alone, it would make sense for Betts’ game to not age very well. He had a career-worst offensive performance last season, leading many to wonder if his transition to playing shortstop full-time took a toll on his hitting. Betts’ hard-hit rate, barrel rate and sprint speed have all dramatically decreased and his bat speed was in the 10th percentile last season. His .258/.326/.406 line were all career lows.

There is an argument that Betts’ offensive struggles were caused by the stomach illness he dealt with last spring training that caused him to lose 20 pounds. He had a much stronger .892 OPS over his last 47 games of the regular season, and an article from The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya earlier this spring indicates that Betts is swinging much better than he did last year.

This group has the potential to be Roberts’ best, but that is not a guarantee. The additions of Diaz and Tucker help, but uncertainty surrounding Sasaki and the potential regression of the offensive core are real problems. And of course, they would need to stay healthy.

Even if this ends up not technically being Roberts’ best team on paper, the 2026 Dodgers still have an enviable amount of talent, and should at least be considered the favorites to win the World Series until proven otherwise.