American League Contenders or Pretenders
Breaking down which teams in the AL Wild Card race have a real chance
The American League postseason picture is an absolute mess. Here are how things currently stand after the All-Star break:
The Tampa Bay Rays (56-38) are first in the AL East. The Chicago White Sox (50-45) and Cleveland Guardians (51-46) are effectively tied for first in the AL Central. The Texas Rangers (49-47) are first in the AL West.
The New York Yankees (54-42) are 6 ½ games up in the first Wild Card Spot, followed by the Guardians, who are 3 games up in the second.
After that is where things get really interesting. The Seattle Mariners (48-49) and Minnesota Twins (48-49) are tied for the third spot. The Boston Red Sox (46-48) are ½ games back. The Houston Astros (47-51) are 1 ½ back. The Baltimore Orioles (46-51) are 2 back. The Toronto Blue Jays (45-51) are 2 ½ back. The Detroit Tigers (44-52) are 3 ½ back.
So basically, there are seven teams vying for the third and final AL Wild Card. Chaos. Who should buy at the trade deadline. Who should sell? Who has a legitimate chance to make some noise in the postseason if they make it? Who would get swept in the Wild Card round?
Let’s go down the list and figure out which teams are contenders or pretenders.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are arguably the most talented of the group of teams fighting for the last spot in the postseason on the AL side. But their biggest star, Cal Raleigh, has completely disappeared. Last season, Raleigh hit 61 home runs, becoming the first catcher in MLB history to reach the 60 homer milestone. The Big Dumper controversially finished second in AL MVP voting behind Aaron Judge and picked up numerous other accolades. This year is a completely different story. Raleigh has just nine homers and is batting a paltry .169 while also having missed a month with a right oblique strain.
Outside of Raleigh, Randy Arozarena is hitting and getting on base at a career-high clip, Julio Rodriguez is still one of baseball’s elite center fielders, Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have been extremely productive and rookie second baseman Cole Young has been a very pleasant surprise.
But as usual, the Mariners’ starting pitching depth is the biggest reason why they have the chance to go far in October. Even with Luis Castillo posting a 4.93 ERA, the M’s have five other legitimate frontline starters, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller, that they can trot out.
If the rotation holds up and Raleigh finally begins to hit anywhere close to the level he did last season, watch out.
Verdict: Contender
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are one of the more surprising teams in the AL postseason picture. Despite a fire sale last trade deadline that saw them move off of Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Ty France, Griffin Jax, Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader and Willi Castro, among others, Minnesota has been very competitive this season.
Byron Buxton, who it seems is finally able stay consistently healthy and once again has no plans on waiving his often-discussed no-trade clause, has been one of the best all-around players in baseball. Outside of Buxton, a balanced offensive attack helped the Twins score the most 471 runs, the most in the AL and sixth in MLB.
While the Twins are a fun story, they just do not have enough pitching outside of Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley to be a true threat. The emergence of Yoendrys Gómez as a viable closing option has been huge, but the rest of the bullpen is just not established enough. If they are able to add more pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, at the deadline, then this could be a different story. One thing they could do is try and pull off a Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer “baseball trade” with Ryan Jeffers, who has been hurt but is a solid offensive catcher, for an arm.
Without pitching reinforcements, it is difficult to see the Twins as much more than a team taking advantage of a weak AL.
Verdict: Pretender
Boston Red Sox
The All-Star break could not have come at a worse time for the Red Sox, who were riding a nine-game winning streak into the pause and have catapulted themselves back into relevancy.
The Red Sox have started winning on the backs of their elite starting pitching. Even with ace Garrett Crochet on the shelf with shoulder/lat injuries, the rotation led by veterans Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray and youngsters Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and unlikely hero Jake Bennet has carried a lackluster offense that is tied for second-to-last in runs.
The big question for the Red Sox is if their recent streak is indicative of the overall quality of the team, and if it is enough for embattled chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to decide to try and buy at the trade deadline. If they add another right-handed bat and guys like Crochet and Roman Anthony get healthy, Boston could suddenly be one of the most dangerous teams in the league.
As things currently stand though, the way the Red Sox are winning close games with their pitching shouldering the load is just not sustainable.
Verdict: Pretender
Houston Astros
The Astros looked dead in the water. They had a 20-31 record on May 20. But despite dealing with injuries to Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier and Carlos Correa, they have rallied to a 27-20 record since then and are suddenly back in the Wild Card and AL West race.
Yordan Alvarez, a triple crown candidate, is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory and is looking like an MVP candidate despite spending the majority of the year at DH so far. 35-year-old Christian Walker is also continuing to produce at a high level.
The biggest reason why the Astros should feel optimistic about the rest of the season is that their rotation looks like it will finally be getting healthy. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are both projected to rejoin the rotation soon after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last season. If Houston is able to solidify left field and bolster the bullpen at the deadline, this could be the best Astros team since 2023 when they lost in seven games in the ALCS to the eventual World Series winning Rangers.
Altuve and Correa, the holdovers from the Astros’ World Series core, are getting older, but they should never be counted out if they are able to find a way to make it to October.
Verdict: Contender
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are fascinating. In 2023, they won 101 games and had a young core that almost every other organization envied. Now, most of those prospects have matured and not reached the potential many thought they had when they were coming up. The result is an Orioles team that is struggling to compete in a weaker-than-expected AL East despite finally spending some money this past offseason.
Pete Alonso, with 21 homers and 65 RBI, is hitting like Pete Alonso. Samuel Basallo has exceeded expectations in his first full season. While his other offensive metrics may be down, Gunnar Henderson is still a legitimate power threat with 17 homers. Blaze Alexander has also come out of nowhere to hit .312.
But, as has often been the case with the Orioles, the starting pitching just is not there. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been solid, but outside of that there has not been much consistency.
Despite technically being in the race, the Orioles look like a prime candidate to take advantage of the sellers market and try and move some of their expiring contracts like Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers.
Verdict: Pretender
Toronto Blue Jays
Expectations were high for the Blue Jays after they took the Los Angeles Dodgers to the brink in last year’s World Series and then continued to add to their already talented roster, signing Dylan Cease for seven years, $210 million, Kazuma Okamoto for four years, $60 million, Tyler Rogers for three years, $37 million and Cody Ponce for three years, $30 million. Despite losing Bo Bichette, the general consensus was that the Blue Jays got better.
That has not been the case so far. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has dealt with lingering back issues and has looked like a shell of himself. In addition to Guerrero’s struggles, The rest of the offense outside of Okamoto, who has 22 homers, and Ernie Clement, who was leading vote-getter for the AL All-Star team, has been a significant problem as well. The Blue Jays are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored in baseball.
If the lineup can get going, there is a lot to like in Toronto. Cease is elite. Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage are no strangers to the postseason after last year. Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers might be the best bullpen duo in baseball.
If Guerrero returns to form and the Blue Jays are able to upgrade the rotation at the trade deadline, there is no reason this team should not be able to make up ground and earn a Wild Card bid. If they end up with the third spot, they would be a nightmare opponent for the worst division winner.
Verdict: Contender
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have an incredibly difficult decision to make in the coming weeks ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Will they trade Tarik Skubal, who is in the final year of his contract and is expected to become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history this offseason?
The decision to trade Skubal became much more difficult following a stretch before the All-Star break that saw the Tigers win nine out of 10 before losing two in a row against Philadelphia Phillies aces Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler.
Outside of the potential Skubal trade looming over Detroit, there is reason to believe in this team. Casey Mize has been a revelation, Dillon Dingler has turned into one of the game’s best offensive catchers and Riley Greene is still an elite hitter, albeit with more bat-to-ball and a bit less power. If Skubal stays and the Tigers are able to add to their bullpen, then this team has the chance to make some noise. But that is a lot to ask for a group that was looking dead in the water in late June.