Can Pete Crow-Armstrong catch Shohei Ohtani in the NL MVP race?
Ohtani's knee injury has opened up the NL MVP conversation
The assumption is that if Shohei Ohtani has a full season at the plate and at least some production on the mound, he will be the National League Most Valuable Player. He has won four MVPs in the last five seasons, only missing out in 2022 when Aaron Judge had his historic 62-homer season. Each of his four MVP wins have been unanimous.
But this year, there is a chance for someone else to challenge Ohtani for the MVP (or at least steal a few votes away from him).
Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 due to a lingering left knee injury. Ohtani did throw about a 30-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday, but Dave Roberts has still not given much of an indication about when he will return to pitching in games. Knowing the Dodgers, they will be extremely cautious with their two-way superstar and be as conservative as possible.
If Ohtani does not pitch again this regular season, he’d end with a 1.79 ERA and 85 ⅔ innings through 14 starts. Last season, he returned to pitching in June after having Tommy John surgery in Sept. 2023. At first, he was only pitching an inning or two at a time but ramped up to be ready for a full workload in the postseason. Through 14 starts, Ohtani pitched just 47 innings and had a 2.87 ERA.
While Ohtani has already done more on the mound this season than he did last season, he has had much less production at the plate. He currently has a .917 OPS and is on pace for 35 home runs, which would both be his lowest since 2022 (when he finished second in MVP).
Ohtani will likely pitch again during the regular season. But, the Dodgers have the best record in the National League (65-38), are 11 ½ games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West and are five games up on the Atlanta Braves, who currently slot in as the third seed in the NL and would have to play in the Wild Card round. Especially with Blake Snell expected to return in the next few weeks, the Dodgers should have enough rotation depth to comfortably get them a first-round bye. Roberts could ramp up Ohtani similarly to how he did last season in order to have him at his best for the postseason.
So, if Ohtani’s standing as the presumptive NL MVP is at risk, who is his biggest challenger?
The most likely candidate to take MVP votes away from Ohtani is Chicago Cubs superstar outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Crow-Armstrong is the only player in MLB to have surpassed the 20-homer, 20-steal threshold so far and is considered by most to be the best defensive center fielder in the world. Because of his elite defensive numbers (MLB-best 20 Outs Above Average), PCA actually has a higher fWAR than Ohtani. Like Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong is dominating in multiple facets of the game. There is no one in baseball who has a better combination of power, speed and defense.
The biggest reason why Crow-Armstrong has made the leap from All-Star caliber player to legitimate MVP candidate is his ability to get on base more consistently. Just from last season, his walk rate has gone up from 4.5% to 11.7%, his BAbip has gone up from .276 to .353 and his overall OBP has improved from .287 to .383.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell had some incredibly high praise for Crow-Armstrong’s improvement (via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian).
“The rate at which it’s improved and how fast it’s improved,” Counsell said, “I don’t have any comparisons to it. I don’t have a great explanation for it. I think it’s just a great athlete coming into his own as a great player.”
Crow-Armstrong is on pace for 33 homers, 40 steals and currently has a .900 OPS. He is also a shoo-in for a Gold Glove and will be in contention for a Silver Slugger in what should be a loaded race in the NL alongside guys like Juan Soto, James Wood, Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker.
If Crow-Armstrong was in the AL, or if there was not a player like Ohtani who has unprecedented two-way production in the NL, he would be a runaway MVP favorite. But there is definitely a path.
In the NBA, writers have often been accused of “voter fatigue,” which is why LeBron James only has four MVPs throughout his 23-year career. That has not really been an issue in the BBWAA, but maybe that could lead to some voters choosing Crow-Armstrong over an injury-plagued pitching and weaker-than-usual offensive season from Ohtani.
Crow-Armstrong could also go on a tear. If he ends up with 40 homers and 40 steals, that statistical accomplishment would be difficult to ignore, just like Ohtani’s 50-50 season was while he was exclusively DHing in 2024.
Ohtani will probably pitch again in the regular season. Even if he stays on the shelf on that side of the ball, he has still probably done enough to lock up the MVP if he keeps hitting at this level. But, for the first time since 2022, there is a real chance for a non-Ohtani MVP.