Kyle Schwarber... future Hall of Famer?

Breaking down Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame case

Photo courtesy of the Associated Press

Kyle Schwarber made history last weekend. While his teammate Bryce Harper hit for the cycle during the Philadelphia Phillies’ 15-3 win over the New York Mets on Saturday, Schwarber hit three home runs. The duo became just the second pair of teammates in Major League history to hit at least three home runs and hit for the cycle on the same day since Lou Gehrig (four home runs) and Tony Lazzeri (cycle) achieved the rare feat for the New York Yankees on June 3, 1932.

Schwarber followed it up with an encore performance on Sunday, slugging his Major League-leading 29th home run.

On Monday’s edition of MLB Now on MLB Network, Steve Phillips, Ron Darling and Jon Heyman debated Schwarber’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

Baseball Reference has a great tool that tries to measure players’ Hall of Fame chances called the “Hall of Fame Monitor.” Created by revolutionary statistician Bill James, the HOF Monitor assigns points to various statistical achievements and career milestones. For example, a player gets 2.5 points for every season with a batting average over .300, 10 points for a 50 HR season, 40 points for 3,000 career hits, etc. A player with a score of 100 means they have a “good possibility” of making the Hall of Fame and 130 is a “virtual cinch.”

Schwarber is currently at a 77, sandwiched among eligible non-HOFers between Buster Posey, who has a 79, and J.D. Martinez, who has a 75. That puts him significantly below James’ 100 benchmark with a long way to go before looking like he has a chance to be enshrined.

But Schwarber is a unique case. He had an injury-plagued start to his career as a catcher and corner outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, helping them break 107-year World Series drought in 2016, but was nowhere near the kind of prolific power hitter he has turned into since joining the Philadelphia Phillies. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after the COVID-shortened 2020 season that saw Schwarber hit .188.

After that, he signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and was traded to the Boston Red Sox for the second half of the 2021 season. That offseason, he signed a four-year, $79 million contract with the Phillies which turned out to be one of the biggest bargains in baseball. This past offseason, Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies on a five-year, $150 million deal.

During his time with the Phillies, Schwarber has arguably been the most consistent home run hitter in the league. He had 46 homers in 2022, 47 in 2023, 38 in 2024, 56 in 2025 and is up to 29 at the midway point this season. He led the NL in 2022 and 2025 and is leading all of baseball so far this year. His 216 homers since 2022 are second-most in MLB only behind Aaron Judge.

Not only has Schwarber absolutely crushed the ball since joining the Phillies, but he has not missed any meaningful time with injuries. He has missed just 26 total games dating back to the start of the 2022 season.

Here are Schwarber’s career totals:

• 369 home runs

• 1,122 hits

• 836 RBI

• .232 AVG

• .347 OBP

• .506 SLG

• .853 OPS

Schwarber turned 33 in March. But based on his durability and how his power has seemed to increase as he has gotten older, that ever-important 500 home run milestone is well within reach. Based on historical precedent, the only thing that has ever kept someone with 500 home runs out of the Hall of Fame are serious steroid allegations, as is the case with Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both have over 500 home runs, and are expected to be first-ballot Hall of Fame selections once they are eligible.

Schwarber is currently on pace to hit 58 home runs this season. If that happens, he would end 2026 with 398 home runs. Schwarber has four more years left on his contract. That means he would need to average 25 ½ home runs each year until the end of his deal to hit 500 before he reaches free agency again.

For most players Schwarber’s age, that may be a tough task. But he has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down, and as a designated hitter, has seemed to be able to limit the wear-and-tear on his body that most players who field a position have at this point in their careers.

Schwarber’s status as a designated hitter, which has allowed him to hit at this level for such a sustained period of time, may end up being his biggest roadblock to being enshrined in Cooperstown. DHs have historically had a difficult time getting elected. The only members of the Hall of Fame who played a majority of their games at DH are Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines and David Ortiz. While Schwarber has still played the majority of his games in the outfield, by the time his career is over, he will almost certainly be known as a full-time DH.

One characteristic that many Hall of Fame voters look to when they fill out their ballots is if a player was one of the best at their position for a period of time. Unfortunately for Schwarber, he plays in the same era as Shohei Ohtani. Because of that, Ohtani has beat out Schwarber each of the last two seasons for the NL’s Silver Slugger at DH. Ohtani is not going away any time soon, and will likely continue to beat out Schwarber for All-Star starter nods and Silver Sluggers at DH in the NL.

Just a few years ago, it would have been blasphemous to call Schwarber a future Hall of Famer. That has changed. His consistency, durability and age-defying power have put him squarely in the conversation to getting a plaque on the wall in Cooperstown.