Taking stock of a loaded NL CY Young race
Cristopher Sánchez, Jacob Misiorowski or Shohei Ohtani?
It is just the start of June, but the National League Cy Young race is already shaping up to be one of the most hotly-contested of all time.
Right now, it is a three-horse race between Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez, Milwaukee Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski and Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
All three of Sánchez, Misiorowski and Ohtani are having historic seasons. So, who has the edge right now and who will come out on top at the end of the year?
The case for Cristopher Sánchez:
7-2, 1.46 ERA, 86 ⅓ IP, 103 K, 1.089 WHIP
Sánchez has truly established himself as one of Major League Baseball’s premiere starting pitchers after his performance during the month of May and his 50 ⅔ scoreless inning streak. Sánchez’s scoreless streak dating back to April 30 finally came to an end on Wednesday in the seventh inning of the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the San Diego Padres when he allowed an RBI single to Jackson Merrill.
Sánchez’s 50 ⅔ scoreless innings streak is the longest stretch by a Phillie and by a left-hander and is the third-longest in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) and the fifth-longest since they moved the mound back to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893.
The Phillies have completely turned things around and righted the ship after a disastrous start that led to the firing of manager Rob Thomson, and Sánchez has been the biggest reason why. In addition to his famed streak, Sánchez leads all of baseball in ERA, innings, FIP, HR/9 bWAR for pitchers.
The case for Jacob Misiorowski:
6-2, 1.65 ERA, 71.0 IP, 108 K, 0.789 WHIP
Misiorowski may have had the most productive month of all time that did not result in a Pitcher of the Month award. In his six starts during May, “The Miz” had a 5-0 record with a 0.23 ERA, allowing just one run in 38⅓ innings while striking out 57 batters. The numbers are of course incredible, but Misiorowski’s historic velocity might be his most impressive feat.
Here are some stats courtesy of ESPN’s David Schoenfield highlighting the historic nature of how hard the 24-year-old Misiorowski threw in May:
Misiorowski threw 241 fastballs in the month at 100 mph or faster.
Batters swung at 125 of them, fouling off 48 and putting just 20 of them in play.
Just five of those 20 went for hits, all of them singles.
Misiorowski threw 71 pitches in the month that clocked 102 mph or faster, including starts with 22 each against the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals.
Misiorowski leads baseball in strikeouts, K/9, WHIP and is in the 100th percentile in Pitching Run Value and Extension, 99th percentile in fastball velocity and the 98th percentile in xERA. More simply, the Brewers are a must-watch whenever Misirowski is on the mound.
Expectations were high for Misiorowski after he burst onto the scene last year and earned an All-Star appearance after just five games, but there was some concern about his ability to be a true ace at this point in his career after he struggled in the second half. It is safe to say that Misiorowski has silenced those doubts.
The case for Shohei Ohtani:
6-2, 0.74 ERA, 61.0 IP, 67 K, 0.787 WHIP
The Dodgers have employed a cautious approach to Ohtani’s pitching, using a six-man rotation and only starting him once a week. Those lack of innings will make it difficult for Ohtani to truly compete for the Cy Young, but if he keeps pitching at this rate, voters will be faced with an unprecedented situation. Will they take his two-way production into account for the award?
On Wednesday, Ohtani pitched six scoreless innings, striking out six and only giving up two hits and one walk while reaching base five times. In his previous start, Ohtani threw six no-hit innings while hitting a leadoff home run. Until he gave up a double to Gabriel Moreno in the fourth inning, Ohtani had 9 ⅔ no-hit innings between his last two starts.
Ohtani’s 0.74 ERA is the third-lowest through 10 starts since earned runs first became a stat in 1913, and would be by far the best in MLB, but is currently one inning shy of qualifying. There is no doubt that Ohtani is the best player in baseball, and likely the best player of all time, but will he accrue enough pitching stats to add a Cy Young award to his seemingly-endless list of accomplishments?
Final verdict:
If the season ended today, just like how he won NL Pitcher of the Month in May, Sánchez would be the frontrunner to take home the NL Cy Young award. His scoreless streak is that impressive.
But, if Ohtani ends the season with a sub-one ERA and is able to reach 162 innings and qualify for rate stats, while also continuing to be one of the best hitters in the sport, voters will be faced with a very tough decision.
Buckle in, folks. This race will be so much fun to follow.
Rooting for Ohtani but fully aware of the fact that despite his unreal pitching numbers, he is currently the dark horse and not the favourite.