The Detroit Tigers are in an impossible situation with Tarik Skubal

Why the Tigers might have to trade Skubal

Photo courtesy of MLB.com

The Detroit Tigers are in an impossible position.

Currently sitting 5 ½ games back of the third American League Wild Card position and 8 games back and in fourth place in their division with a 29-40 record, they are not looking like a serious postseason contender.

Two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is in the final year of his contract, and is expected to become the highest paid pitcher of all time this offseason when he becomes a free agent.

Skubal is represented by super-agent Scott Boras. That means he is unlikely to consider any sort of hometown discount. Based on Boras’ reputation, his primary objective will be to get Skubal as much money as possible.

If the Tigers are not 100% confident in their ability to out-bid teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and New York Mets for Skubal, then they absolutely have to consider trading him. This would be a different story if they were looking a bit more competitive and could justify keeping him for this season with the hopes of going on a postseason run, but that is not a realistic outcome for this current group based on the way they have played over their first 69 games.

This is the sad reality for Detroit fans. The Tigers invested heavily in their 2026 team, signing win-now veterans like Framber Valdez (three-year, $115 million), Gleyber Torres (one-year, $22.05 million qualifying offer), Kyle Finnegan (two-year, $19 million), Justin Verlander (one-year, $13 million) and Kenley Jansen (one-year, $11 million). They also signed rookie sensation Kevin McGonigle eight-year, $150 million extension in April, further signaling the Tigers’ financial commitment to this current group.

The goal was clearly to compete in what could be Skubal’s final year with the team and go as close to all-in as a smaller-market team like the Tigers can.

But, with the season almost at its midpoint, the Tigers have the decision about what to do with Skubal looming over them.

The Skubal situation is further complicated by his injury status. Skubal was the first pitcher to have a new type of surgery to address loose bodies in the elbow performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, coined the “Skubal Scope” by Boras, that is supposed to cut the recovery time from two to three months to just about one month.

Skubal had the procedure on May 6, and is scheduled to start for the Tigers on Saturday after throwing a minor league rehab assignment on Sunday.

Check out this video from our own Trevor May for more on the new NanoScope surgery:

If Skubal struggles or shows any signs of lingering discomfort, his trade value could tank. On the other hand, if Skubal pitches well in his return, that could further incentivize the Tigers to make a move knowing that Skubal is healthy.

There is always the chance that even if the Tigers trade Skubal this season that they could re-sign him, but that is an incredibly risky strategy. The Boston Red Sox notably tried to do this with Jon Lester in 2014, when they traded him to the Oakland Athletics during the season then courted him during the offseason. Lester ended up signing with the Chicago Cubs, helping them win the World Series in 2016.

The most prominent example of trading, then re-signing someone being a success is when the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs in 2016, then re-signing him to a five-year, $86 million deal, the largest for a reliever until Edwin Diaz beat it in 2022.

Despite what the Yankees were able to pull off with Chapman, it should be safe to assume that if the Tigers trade Skubal, their chances of signing him back are close to zero.

So what should the Tigers do?

For a half-season of Skubal, you could get an absolute haul of prospects who are on the brink of the Major Leagues.

The always aggressive San Diego Padres and their general manager A.J. Preller could offer a deal headlined by Ethan Salas, the No. 49 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline and the No. 5 catching prospect. The Toronto Blue Jays could dangle their top prospect and No. 29 overall prospect JoJo Parker. The Milwaukee Brewers could try and replicate the magic they found when they traded for CC Sabathia in 2008 and offer prospects like Luis Peña (No. 16), Jett Williams (No. 57) or Cooper Pratt (No. 63) while still retaining consensus top prospect Jesús Made.

Basically, any team in postseason contention should be willing to part with their top prospects/young players for a few months of Skubal.

But then again, the Tigers have a very bright future. Valdez is signed for two more seasons. McGonigle is looking like a future superstar. Dillon Dingler and Riley Greene are legitimate building blocks. There have been no reported indications that Skubal has been unhappy in Detroit, and that if the money is there, would not re-sign.

Signing Skubal to a long-term contract and continuing to build around the Tigers’ current young core should make them a contender for years to come.

Keeping Skubal, then having him sign elsewhere this offseason while the Tigers miss the postseason would be devastating for the franchise. But so would trading him and potentially nuking any chance of re-signing him.