The San Diego Padres had a 50-53 record on Thursday, July 23 after losing three out of four to the Atlanta Braves. They were in third place in the National League West, 15 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers and four games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were fifth in the NL Wild Card race behind the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh Pirates and four games back of the D-Backs for the third Wild Card spot.
Heading into the trade deadline, there were actual conversations being had about whether or not the Padres should be sellers. Was this team good enough to invest in? Would the Padres notoriously ultra-aggressive president of baseball operations A.J. Preller really give up on his super-bullpen and try to flip Mason Miller after acquiring him at last year’s deadline?
Those fears have been assuaged for now. Since July 23, the Padres have gone 14-4, catapulting themselves into the second NL Wild Card spot, leapfrogging the Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies in the standings.
And as many could have predicted, Preller was indeed a buyer at the trade deadline, and somehow found enough talent in the Padres’ depleted farm system to strike deals for Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to reinvigorate their starting rotation.
Since July 23, the Padres have the fourth-highest scoring offense in MLB and are second with a .280 team batting average. Up to July 23, the Padres were 24th in runs and 28th with a .230 average. Despite featuring household names like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill, the Padres offense was a legitimate concern. That has changed.
Merrill has five home runs and a 180 wRC+ in the 18 games since the Padres were four games back in the NL Wild Card race. Tatis, who did not hit his first home run of 2026 until May 30, has 4. Ty France, who has quietly been the Padres most consistent hitter all season, is hitting .362.
Over the last 18 games, the Friars have also gotten three walk-off wins, including their 11th-inning walk-off on Wednesday courtesy of catcher Luis Campusano to clinch the series sweep over the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers.
The blueprint going into the season for the Padres was clear. Give the bullpen a lead and let them take it from there. Mason Miller leads the NL with 30 saves and has an unfathomable 0.88 ERA and 16.3 SO/9. 22-year-old Bradgley Rodriguez has been a revelation with a 2.13 ERA across 50 appearances. Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta and Jeremiah Estrada have both continued to be elite leverage arms. For the most part, if their starters can go five or six innings, the bullpen is able to take it from there.
That is how they have been winning games lately. Six of their last 14 wins have been by one run. Two more of those wins have been by two runs. Miller has recorded six saves. Morejon also picked up a save on Aug. 2 after Miller had pitched in three of the previous four days (recording two saves and a win).
Going back to July 23, the bullpen has pitched 89 ⅔ innings, the most in baseball, and has a 2.41 ERA, the second-best in baseball in that stretch.
The question is: is it sustainable for them to keep winning games like this? Their run differential is just +1, the second-lowest of any team currently in the postseason picture (after the Texas Rangers and their -34 RD).
If any team can win on the margins like this, it’s this year’s Padres and their star-studded relief aces. No team is better built to handle one or two-run leads than San Diego.
Games get shorter in the postseason. The Padres ability to shorten games with their bullpen becomes even more valuable. That was put on display during last year’s Wild Card round loss to the Cubs. Even though they did not advance, the Padres successfully used Miller, Morejon and Estrada in multi-inning roles. If their rotation is able to keep a lead, Miller and co. will be able to shut the door.
The Padres have suddenly become very formidable. This team has had the talent and the buy-in from the front office, making it to the postseason in four of the last six seasons and going as far as the NLCS in 2022. Even though their division rival, the reigning back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers, are a seemingly omnipresent roadblock, this Padres team might just be built to take them down and make a legitimate run in October.